The olive sector council of the Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de España analyzed the market situation after six months of the campaign and its possible evolution until the arrival of the new oils in mid-November.
Although the widespread rains in March were excellent news for the fields and improved expectations for the next season, it is too early to estimate production because the next harvest will be affected by the spring weather, which has already started with warmer temperatures. higher than usual in April.
According to the latest advance data for the month of March, published by the Iberian Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food following operators’ declarations to the AICA, it is concluded that the availability of oil for the second half of the season will not exceed 560,000 tonnes, estimating an absolute minimum of 200,000 tonnes of restricted stocks to cover the months of October and November, therefore the connection between the two campaigns.
This availability is the same as last season at this time because, although production was lower, it started with a reserve stock of 454,607 tonnes, which is 200,000 tonnes more than at the start of the 2023/24 season.
Imports are expected to remain at the same level of 211,000 tonnes as last season. Stocks in producing countries are also low, in addition to the export difficulties of countries such as Turkey and Morocco.
This availability means that there is not enough oil for the average monthly quantities of product leaving the market to exceed 90,000 tonnes, figures similar to those recorded in the 22/23 season, with similar levels of export and internal consumption.
For the sector, until the end of the year, there will continue to be a shortage of oil to cover market needs, and the law of supply and demand will regulate prices, as already happened in the summer and autumn of 2023 .
Of CS
