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«We have a second chance. The world is back on our side like October 8th. Let’s see how quickly we waste it this time.”.
It’s a quote from a tired, gifted Israeli general bitter irony and ready for the worst, like most of his compatriots. The second possibility he refers to is that Iran gave to the Jewish state with Saturday night’s attack, those 110 ballistic missiles, 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles neutralized by Israel’s defense system and the American-led international coalition, with the sensational participation of several moderate Arab states.
The gift consists of this: For three days there has been no talk of Gazaof the way in which to interrupt the massacre of Palestinian civilians And free the Israeli hostages in the hands of Hamas, an issue that the current Israeli government faces with barely concealed intolerance, because it hinders “total victory” over the terrorists; Joe Biden he confirmed that, despite the harsh contrast that pits him against Benjamin Netanyahu, the American shield to protect Israel is not in question; Israel has emerged from isolation and has received a solidarity that cannot be more concrete.
In this sense we are back the day after the Hamas pogrom, the slaughter of 1,200 Israelis that started this war. A just and inevitable war, in the need to respond to the largest massacre of Jews since the Shoah; a war that then took place unfair and unacceptable in the perception of international public opinion, due to the frightening number of innocent victims, including dead, injured and refugees.
Now, Israel’s response to Iran is certain: it could arrive after the Jewish Passover, in about ten days, or before. If the world is holding its breath, it is because it is waiting to understand the scope of that response.
It will be a significant but limited retaliation, in order to avoid the much feared escalation, or on the contrary – by calculation or by chance – it will risk provoking a dramatic widening of the conflict?
As Danilo Taino writes, Iran – a sponsor of Hamas, but which remained out of the fray for six months – “turned an advantage it was accumulating against Israel into a semi-disaster”. It is the effect of the response to the Israeli attack on April 1st on its diplomatic offices in Syria, or «the dead end into which autocracies often find themselves: be forced to flex your musclesfor internal reasons and the reputation of the regime, even when this is unwise or even foolish.”
But now the ball is back in the Israeli prime minister’s court: «If Netanyahu decides to let revenge prevail, 360-degree or at least harsh retaliation, in fact he would throw away the advantage he unexpectedly found. It is diplomacy and political capacity that now offer the possibility of building on the new situation, of further isolating Iran, in a collaboration between Israel, Washington, the so-called moderate Arab countries, London, Paris”.
Because Biden’s is a defensive shield, which makes Israel untouchable. To that shield, America will add new sanctions on Iran. But a total war, which incinerates his ready-made peace plan – a real peace, therefore with a Palestinian state – the president will do everything to avoid.
What Israel says
The official position is that of Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the armed forces: “Iran cannot go unpunished.” For Benny Gantz, the centrist leader who is pushing to challenge Netanyahu in the elections but has chosen to support him in this war, he should be punished like this: «We must build a global alliance because Tehran is a global threat. We will respond at the time, place and way we deem most appropriate.” And Netanyahu? Since Saturday only one post: «We intercepted them. We stopped them. Together we will win.” Nothing more. In short, there is division regarding times and methods, writes Davide Frattini.
What Iran says
Threatening tones, muscles displayed once again to hide a nervous wait: «The Zionists must know that this time they will not have 12 days and that the answer they will receive will not be calculable in hours or days, it will be given in a few seconds», he said Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. “We are ready to use a weapon that we have never used before”, added Abolfazl Amouei, spokesperson for the Parliament’s National Security Committee (Guido Olimpio explains why the 9 missiles that “pierced” the Israeli shield are not a negligible signal ).
What America says
The White House, according to the CNN, expects a “limited response” from Israel. Spokesman John Kirby reiterated that it is up to Israel to decide “whether and how to respond”, but that America “does not want a war with Iran or an escalation”. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions on the ayatollahs’ regime to hinder “terrorist financing”.
The oil dilemma
As our correspondent Viviana Mazza explains, «some observers believe it is unlikely that the Biden administration will tighten sanctions on Iranian oil exports, due to concerns about the impact they would have on oil prices and to avoid irritating China, which is the most important buyer.” Which “creates a dilemma for the White House: how to restore deterrence without leading to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and without destabilizing relations with Beijing?”. For this reason, the measures already approved by the US House are weighed with prudence by the administration. Furthermore, an increase in the price of oil due to the worsening of the Middle Eastern crisis would benefit Russian exports.
But the real dilemma is called Bibi
Or Netanyahu. Biden asks him to end the war in Gaza, negotiate the release of the hostages, endorse an overall plan for a regional stabilizationwith mutual recognition between Israel and the Sunni states (including Saudi Arabia) and a process that leads to a Palestinian state, a condition that has once again become indispensable for the moderate Arab world.
However, the White House has long suspected that “Bibi” wants, on the contrary, drag America into an all-out war with Iran, precisely to stop a process that has Palestine as its destination. The unprecedented attack on Iran’s diplomatic offices (and therefore on its territory) would confirm this.
In resisting US pressure, the prime minister relies on extremist and fanatical component of his government, he uses it and is hostage to it at the same time. He needs it to avoid Palestine, but also elections in which he would be overwhelmed, and three corruption trials that have been awaiting him for years. Anshel Pfefferone of the best Israeli analysts (and Bibi’s biographer) explains the situation like this: «An international coalition against Iran is what Netanyahu has talked about for a long time. If circumstances were different, he could claim her as his inheritance. But he fears that, ultimately, the price of joining Biden’s coalition against Iran will be the end of his own governing coalition. If Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich (the extremist ministers), who demand a devastating response against Iran, will remain in the government despite a much milder response, will certainly leave if Netanyahu finally accepts the other condition for Biden’s grand plan: that the Palestinian Authority takes control of Gaza”.
At the center there are always the Palestinians
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi explains this perfectly in an interview with Marta Serafini, an important document because it clarifies how illusory Netanyahu’s hope of making the epicenter of the conflict once again forgotten. Says the head of diplomacy of a country that has been at peace with Israel for 30 years, and which three days ago contributed decisively to its defense by having Iranian missiles shot down in its skies, but which now does not intend to concede its skies to Israeli response:
«Iran responded to the attack on its consulate in Damascus. The burden now falls on the Israeli government to ease tensions. So that the Israeli prime minister don’t think about diverting attention from the aggression in Gazaor to exploit the conflict with Iran to save his career and serve the radical agenda of the extremist ministers in his cabinet”.
«Attention must continue to focus on ending the Gaza catastrophe. The first step for de-escalation must be to end the food crisis 2.3 million Palestinians. And let’s not forget that the number of children killed by Israel in the war on Gaza is higher than the number of children killed by all conflicts around the world in more than four years. For this reason we work for a just and lasting peace that guarantees security for Palestinians and Israelis. The two-state solutionthat Israeli measures are killing, it is the only path to that peace».
The coup of Europe (and Italy)
The coup of Europe (and Italy) It is defeated by the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell and our Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Borrell seems like a carbon copy of the Jordanians: “Let’s not forget Gaza because there will be no possibility of building lasting peace in the region if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not resolved.” Same position as Tajani, who adds that Italy is willing to send peacekeeping troops in a future Palestine: «We are ready to do our part for peace, as we are doing in Lebanon».
In short, from now on it should be clear that when we talk about large regional plans without talking about Palestine it is all rubbish.
