PARIS – The National Gathering arrives in the lead in the first round of the early legislative elections with 29.2%, according to the final count of the votes. With the addition of the list Republicans by Eric Ciotti the far-right bloc reaches 33.1%. The alliance of the New Popular Front obtained 27.9%, the list Ensemble of the outgoing presidential majority 20%, the Republicans anti Ciotti 6.5% to which you can add the Miscellaneous Right al 3,6%.
Now, ahead of the second round next Sunday, the far-right bloc is leading in most constituencies. The candidates of the Rassemblement National and Ciotti are in first place in 297 constituencies. Following are the candidates of New Popular Front (155 circoscrizioni), the list of macronists (62)hey Republicans (34).
The far right is also advancing outside its historic strongholds, in new regions. For the first time in its history, Brittany saw RN candidates qualify for the second round in 26 constituencies, even leading in 5. Only the West of France held out, to the advantage of the presidential majority and its allies. The New Popular Front is instead higher in the Île-de-France, especially the suburbs and in the capital.
Already yesterday evening, exceeding 50% of the votes, some candidates were elected in the first round. In particular, Marine Le Pen and 39 other candidates from the Rassemblement National, 32 from the Nouveau Front Populaire and only two from the Ensemble list. According to the latest projection in seats from Ifop, updated with the first desistance agreements announced by the left and the Macronists, the Rassemblement National and Ciotti could win a maximum of 270 seats, while Ipsos predicts 10 more seats, or 280. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 deputies.. Harris and Elabe, however, place the far-right bloc in the top bracket, estimating that it could win between 295 and 310 seats.
According to calculations by the magazine Le Grand Continent, there were triangular contests (three candidates qualified for the second round) in 319 constituencies last night. With the withdrawal of the left-wing candidates – as announced by various NFP leaders – the three-way contests would be reduced to 159. In this scenario, the far-right bloc could fail to obtain an absolute majority, with a gap of about 15 seats.
Marc Lazar: “Even the new pact may not prevent a Bardella-led government”
from our correspondent Anais Ginori
01 July 2024
The turnout to vote yesterday was historic: 66.7% equal to 32,911,132 voters, well above the 47.51% recorded in 2022. Young people’s participation was also strong: according to a Toluna Harris Interactive survey, 41 percent of French voters aged 18 to 24 voted leftfor the Nouveau Front Populaire, 23% have instead the RN and its allies. 13% of young voters remained loyal to Emmanuel Macron, who voted for Ensemble pour la République, while 8% opted for the Republicans. Data are essentially identical for the slightly older age group, from 25 to 34, as the survey explains. In 2017, the results were very different. According to Ipsos and Sopra Steria, the newly elected President of the Republic Macron and his party La République En Marche had attracted 32% of young people between 18 and 24.
