Denmark, Spain and Portugal are the happy islands of the socialists at the next European elections: it is thanks to them that they will avoid a debacle

The European elections next June will provide important indications to the great political families of the Old Continent, but for some they will prove to be a harbinger of painful budgets. The progressive alliance of Socialists and Democrats, the main centre-left formation at community level, needs a good result to emerge from the crisis that has gripped it for some time, but […]

The European elections of next June will provide important indications to the great political families of the Old Continent, but for some they will prove to be a harbinger of painful budgets. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, the main centre-left formation at community level, needs a good result to emerge from the crisis that has gripped it for some time, but the difficulties experienced in several member states risk proving difficult to overcome. Among other things, the collapse in the country weighs heavily Germanythe disappearance of progressives in Czech Republic or the irrelevance of the center-left in Polandwhile the slight recovery in France and in Greece it is a positive signal but not enough to reverse the continental trend. Among the few happy islands there are, however, Denmark And Spainbut also the Portugalwhere until a few months ago the Socialists were in power.

The Danish Social Democrats, led by the prime minister Mette Frederiksen in power since 2019, are in first place in voting intentions reported by Politicare five points ahead of their rivalsLiberal Alliance and in the European consultations they could obtain 24% of the votes. The popularity of the movement is, paradoxically, also linked to the implementation of unorthodox policies for a social democratic party. Copenhagen it is among the harshest in Europe in the field of migration and in the last decade it has taken increasingly severe positions against immigration. These include the law, passed in 2021 and criticized by Brusselswhich allows you to deport to third countries refugees, or the designation of parts of the Syria as safe to not grant protection to refugees from that nation.

This latest decision was revoked following international reactions but is indicative of the climate prevailing in the country. The change of the Social Democrats has begun, as recalled by Le Monde, after yet another electoral defeat in 2015 to win back their former supporters. Progressives admitted that support for the generous policies of hospitality had harmed workers, who had to bear the brunt of immigration and integration failures as well as having undermined the welfare.

Moving on to the Iberian Peninsula, the resilience of the Spanish socialistsdriving one minority coalition formed by regionalist and separatist movements, highlighted by a recent survey by Center for Sociological Investigations. The progressives are credited with 38.6% of the electoral preferences against 29.2% of their rivals People’s Party, while according to other surveys the centre-right is in first position but the Socialists would have around 30% of the votes, one of the best results in Europe for the centre-left. The executive led by Pedro Sanchez was characterized by the conciliatory policies adopted towards Catalan separatists who in return support him Madrid and can benefit from the good Rate of growth recorded by the economy. The Prime Minister, who recently assessed the resignation after the accusations of corruption (which were then requested to be dismissed) against his wife, he remains a figure capable of attracting consensus.

In Portugal the Socialists can start again from the 28% of votes obtained in the parliamentary elections in March, a good result if we take into account the adversities experienced by the party. The resignation of the prime minister Antonio Costa, which arose last November following a scandal to which he was completely unrelated, have damaged the party and deprived it of a prominent leader. Costa, fresh from two electoral successes and in power since 2015, was considered one of the most important exponents of European progressivism and was a popular figure at home. The progressives narrowly lost the 2024 elections faced with a new leader but there was no collapse of voters. The movement can, therefore, start again from what has been built in the latest government experiences to consolidate its role within the community assembly.