Weather report. Historic event in Dubai, a year and a half’s worth of rain in just one day « 3B Meteo

In Dubai approximately 160 mm fell in 24 hours, in practice the rain that should normally fall in a year and a half. Much of the rain was concentrated in 12 hours. It is an extreme or exceptional weather event, generated by the passage of a storm system that affected the United Arab Emirates and part of the Middle East. This same disturbed system, inserted in a pronounced depression (a low pressure at altitude) also generated floods in Oman (130mm) and Iran (108mm); the broad system will weaken once it reaches Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A year and a half of rain caused floods while the streets turned into real rivers which invaded homes and businesses.

The climate of the United Arab Emirates is characterized by typically desert conditions, with very hot summers, mild winters and little rainfall. On average less than 100 mm of rain falls per year. Precipitation is more concentrated in the winter months and can vary considerably from one year to the next. The rains, when they occur, are often short but intense, sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms. Desert areas often receive all of their annual precipitation through a few events.

The long-term comparison of rainfall in the decade between 1979 and 1988 compared to the most recent decade between 2012 and 2021 highlights that in most of the UAE the amount of rainfall in the winter months has more than halved. Nonetheless, there can be productive years like the current one, even with extreme events. Since the 2000s, temperatures have increased on average in line with the global warming trend. The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region is warming at a rate of 0.45°C/decade.

The current year is one of those characterized by a transition from El Niño to La Niña. During El Niño years, especially in the transition phases to La Niña, the United Arab Emirates experienced above-average rainfall. El Niño typically causes a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns, which can bring more moisture to the region. This humidity, when conditions are right, leads to an increase in precipitation. This increase has been more evident since the 1980s. Before, however, El Niño was associated with a reduction in rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula. This shift may be linked to climate change.

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