Voting will take place on Thursday United Kingdom to elect a new parliament, but we already know how it will end: on Friday morning the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmerwill be received by King Charles III, who will give him the task of forming a new government. All the polls say that the Conservatives’ seats, after 14 years of disastrous leadership of the country, will be halved and that Labour will have a more overwhelming majority than Tony Blair had in 1997. The Tories are leaving the government with their tails between their legs: four prime ministers (David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss) have governed thinking about short-term gain without considering the long-term cost. They then left the bill to be paid by their successor, Rishi Sunak, who preferred to call early elections rather than be left holding the hot potato.
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A human rights lawyer, Starmer, 61, is the son of a toolmaker and a nurse. A graduate of Leeds and Oxford, he has been in Parliament since 2015 and has been Labour leader since 2020. When he was appointed, he campaigned to eradicate anti-Semitism from the Labour Party. His wife Victoria is Jewish. He received the Order of the Bath, but does not want to be called Sir. He is the representative of a “soft” left, which focuses on reforms and not revolutions. Critics say he is a ghost who does not make himself heard when he should, but friends assure that this is not true, and that he will prove it.
THE ELECTIONS
In 2009, David Cameron fooled many voters by talking about a “compassionate conservatism” that would solve the huge debt, social disintegration, and political disenchantment. He said: “There is a steep climb ahead of us. But the view from the top will be worth it.” From the top, all that was seen was a mountain of broken promises and dashed hopes. “Children will grow up with security and love,” Cameron promised. Today, a million British children live in poverty. “Communities will govern themselves,” and councils are failing with funding cut by 40%. “You will no longer be afraid to go home alone,” but last year, 90% of crimes reported to the police, who were out of money, went unsolved.
After him, Theresa May only caused more trouble, the biggest of which was the botched start of Brexit. Boris Johnson was essentially dedicated to himself, a cause he considered bigger than the United Kingdom. The tragic management of Covid, the scandal of the parties during the lockdown, the hasty Brexit agreement, the lies told to Queen Elizabeth, and even the curtains and gold wallpaper in Downing Street are indelible images of his government. Liz Truss was in office for just 49 days, and will only be remembered for her bad temper. Finally, Rishi Sunak was never loved: too rich with a wife richer than him, not very incisive, he gave the impression of considering the role of prime minister a hobby that was not always rewarding. In Cameron’s time, election buses had a sign on the sides for illegal immigrants: “Go home or risk arrest”. Fourteen years later, Sunak, the son of immigrants, thought he could solve the problem by deporting people to Rwanda.
The Rwanda law will be the first that Starmer will abolish. His government is already ready, the ministers will be more or less the same as those of the Labour “shadow government”. On 9 July he will participate in the NATO summit in Washington and reiterate his commitment to support Ukraine. Then he will deal with the budget to be presented in September, the salaries of protesting doctors, the hospital waiting lists, the houses to be built, what to do with the immigrants who arrive, how to ban young people from smoking. Economy, health, housing and immigration are the citizens’ four priorities, according to all the polls. And there will be the Brexit game: many voters, especially the many young people who support Labour, will ask Starmer to reconsider. But it is not a given that Europe will listen to him, full as it is of other problems to solve.
THE POLLS
The latest polls put Labour at 41%, the Conservatives at 20, the Liberal Democrats at 11 and the Greens at 6. But at 17% there is Reform, the new party invented at the last minute by the eternal troublemaker Nigel Farage, the great friend of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the Brexit standard-bearer who had announced his retirement from politics, but who instead never goes away. An additional threat for the Conservatives, who now have another “steep mountain” to climb, that of lost credibility and honor.
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