Artificial intelligence, new technologies, ESG transition, geopolitical risks and climate change. Exports are growing again and are experiencing a great moment of transformation between new risks and emerging opportunities. In this context Sace presented the Doing Export Report 2024 which delves into the growth potential of Italian exports and the new routes on which companies must focus, counting on Sace’s solutions, connections and knowledge tools. But this year there is something new: 9 guidelines have been traced along which Italian companies must structure their growth strategies to shine – be “sparkling” – and be a company of the future. “Italian companies find themselves crossing the threshold of a new era, where, to be competitive, they must rethink and invest, focusing on agile and sustainable organizational models and looking to the future – he declared Alessandra Ricci, CEO of SACE – And for all this, Sace is there, together with companies with solutions, people and offices, in Italy and around the world. Sace’s Doing Export Report is the practical guide to evolve, monitor and intercept opportunities for Italian exports in a complex international context, but with high potential for Made in Italy”.
“Good news for exports: growth is back. Italy confirms itself among the top exporters in the world: 679 billion in 2025 and 4% growth in the next two years. And the opportunities come from the Gate markets where Sace is present and which are worth 80 billion euros today and could be worth 95 billion by 2027: Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, India, China, Vietnam, Singapore – has explained Alessandro Terzulli Chief Economist of Sace – The future is not tomorrow, it is today and companies can develop their potential by exploiting artificial intelligence and new technologies also in sectors of the future such as instrumental mechanics applied to efficiency, circularity applied to production cycles and low carbon technologies that are worth 40 billion today and could be worth 50 billion by 2025.”
Will exports continue to shine? Sales across borders will grow in 2024 and continue at a sustained pace over the next three years, with a return to growth dynamics similar to those pre-pandemic. The decline in inflation and the consequent progressive cut in interest rates will also contribute, with an improvement in global financial conditions.
After a 2023 characterized by a relative and partly physiological weakness in trade in goods, the value of Italian exports of goods will record a +3.7% this year, +4.5% in 2025 and +4.2% on average in the following two years. The value in euros in 2024 will exceed 650 billion while next year it will reach 679 billion. The positive trend is also confirmed for the national export of services, with an average growth in value of 4% in 2024-2027, thanks also to the continuous development of the most advanced digital technologies (in particular artificial intelligence), which will act as paving the way for a new phase of globalization.
The adoption of new technologies is also dictating the evolution of consumer goods: from the fashion sector to wood-furniture which use innovative products and processes, such as 3D printing. For intermediate goods, positive signals will come this year from cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, while from 2025 also from chemicals in the strict sense. Agri-food confirms itself as one of the leading sectors for foreign sales of Made in Italy, once again thanks to digital and sustainable evolution: sensors, intelligent irrigation devices, crop monitoring and management platforms are just examples of how Italian companies are facing the challenges of the future.
Sales across borders will grow in 2024 and continue at a sustained pace over the next three years, with a return to growth dynamics similar to those pre-pandemic. The decline in inflation and the consequent progressive cut in interest rates will also contribute, with an improvement in global financial conditions.
After a 2023 characterized by a relative and partly physiological weakness in trade in goods, the value of Italian exports of goods will record a +3.7% this year, +4.5% in 2025 and +4.2% on average in the following two years. The value in euros in 2024 will exceed 650 billion while next year it will reach 679 billion. The positive trend is also confirmed for the national export of services, with an average growth in value of 4% in 2024-2027, thanks also to the continuous development of the most advanced digital technologies (in particular artificial intelligence), which will act as paving the way for a new phase of globalization.
The adoption of new technologies is also dictating the evolution of consumer goods: from the fashion sector to wood-furniture which use innovative products and processes, such as 3D printing. For intermediate goods, positive signals will come this year from cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, while from 2025 also from chemicals in the strict sense. Agri-food confirms itself as one of the leading sectors for foreign sales of Made in Italy, once again thanks to digital and sustainable evolution: sensors, intelligent irrigation devices, crop monitoring and management platforms are just examples of how Italian companies are facing the challenges of the future.
Export of low-carbon technologies (LCT). The environmental transition is underway at a global level and enabling technologies are one of the driving forces behind the evolution of Italian exports. A driving force for growth, in fact, will come from development plans in the context of the green and digital transition which will stimulate demand for investment goods. Our country is among the leaders in the export of LCT goods, i.e. products that cause less pollution than traditional ones, for example solar panels or wind turbines. Green Made in Italy will reach 50 billion in foreign sales by 2025 and is expected to grow by 11.1% in 2024 and 13.7% the next.
Digital technologies and AI. Companies that have invested in digital technologies and adopted digitized production processes over time – and still continue to do so today – enjoy measurable and lasting productivity advantages: +3.1% per year, for AI alone. And among the major benefits declared by companies: increased productivity, better tailor-made quality and the productivity of human resources.
But what is the effect of 4.0 technologies on economic performance? Companies that have adopted 4.0 technologies in 2025 will have better production and export performances compared to those that have not adopted 4.0 (33% vs 25% of companies in the first case and 27% vs 24% in the second case). This is also highlighted by recent investigations by the Tagliacarne-Unioncamere Study Center. There is also a “skills 4.0” effect: companies that have invested in both digital technologies and training expect production increases more widely for next year than those that, despite adopting 4.0, have not focused on training (36% vs. 29%). In particular, companies that use artificial intelligence tools have a greater probability of almost 10% of recording an increase in exports in the coming years, a probability that doubles in the case of small companies.
Destination markets: Gate countries for Made in Italy
95 billion represents the Italian export that will be generated by 2027 from the 14 GATE markets identified and covered by Sacw, from East to West. Gate is an acronym that stands for Growing, Ambitious, Transforming and Emerging with which SACE identified the most promising countries for Made in Italy foreign sales. Markets that have stood out for their growth, ambition, transformation and high potential, where SACE is present with its offices to support Italian companies.
China, India, Singapore, Vietnam in Asia; United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye in the Middle and Near East; Serbia; Egypt and Morocco in the wake of the Matteo Plan together with South Africa as entry points on the Sub-Saharan Continent; up to Brazil, Mexico, Colombia in Latin America. Specifically, around €80 billion of Italian goods were exported in 2023, which will grow by 5.4% this year and 7% in 2025.
So in Campania
There Campaniawhich has 379 thousand active companies of which over 17 thousand SMEs, is the 1st region of Southern Italy by value exported (3.5% of total national sales across the border) and 7th at a national level. In 2023 the regional exports of goods they reached the €22.2 billion with an increase of 29.2% compared to the previous year, an excellent performance when compared with the stationary performance of national exports. In the first quarter of this year (latest data available), sales across the border in Campania increased by 9.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, confirming a very positive dynamic even compared to the national figure (-2.8%). Naples it is the main province for exports, with a value of goods exported in 2023 equal to €14.5 billion; followed by Salerno (€3.8 billion), Avellino (€2 billion) e Caserta (€1.7 billion).
There pharmaceutical it is the main regional export sector with a share of 28% and the value of exported goods doubled to over 6 billion in 2023. Exports of food and drinks (+6.6%), driven in particular by fruit and vegetables, e means of transport (+64%), driven in particular by vehicle sales. On the contrary, sales of metal products (-9.8%) e agricultural products (-3.8%). At a regional level, the sustained performance of the Electrical devices (+47.8%), led by cabling equipment (+82.5%). Between January and March 2024, growth was recorded for relevant sectors such as pharmaceuticals (+76.2%), food and beverages (+1.2%) and means of transport (+13.2%), while sales suffered declines of metal products (-40%) and electrical appliances (-35.6%).
At the level of territorial specializations the Salerno preserves saw a good performance last year, which continued into the first quarter of 2024. Sales of food products from Naples And buffalo mozzarella from Naplesafter an increase recorded in 2023, were decreasing at the beginning of the year.
There Swiss in 2023 it confirmed itself as the main outlet market, with a 99.7% increase in exported goods for a value of over €5 billion. This performance is mainly attributable to pharmaceutical sales, which account for over 90% of demand from Bern. Exports to Italy also recorded a sustained increase United States (+54.5%), on towing of means of transport, Germany (+26.7%) e France (+14.1%). Among the top ten export destinations of Campania is progressing Poland (+3.2%). In the first quarter of this year, sales to Switzerland once again saw intense growth (+87.2%), again driven by the positive growth of pharmaceuticals. There were also increases in demand from the United States (+4%) and France (+24.4%), while a decline in exports to Germany (-14.6%) was reported. Among the less attended geographies, significant increases in the value of exports to United Arab Emirates (+95.4% in 2023 and +26% in the first quarter of 2024), Mexico (+30% and +49.3%), Colombia (+54.8% and +102.3%).
