ANCONA We still feel the scorching breath of Minos on our skin, its 37-38° accompanied by the sand of the Sahara but now we breathe a little, with the temperatures back to acceptable values and some storms refreshing the air. The next three days will also be marked by an unstable phase in the Marche region, with rain and showers especially inland (since yesterday) but good weather will return in the second half of the week. And it will be very hot again. As we approach the halfway point of the year, 2024 is also a candidate in our region to be the warmest since 1961 onwards, since there has been monitoring of weather trends that records temperatures and rainfall.
Like in 2007
Indeed, this first part of 2024 is already the warmest of the last 63 years, joined only by 2007. This is certified by the latest monthly climate analysis carried out by the weather experts of the regional agency Amap, relating to last May, according to which the temperature average from the beginning of the year (January-May 2024 period) is 11.7°C, +1.9°C compared to the average for the thirty-year period 1991-2020. «At the moment, 2024 appears to be the warmest since 1961, tied with 2007″, write Amap meteorologists Danilo Tognetti and Stefano Leonesi. This phase could even be the hottest since 1800, according to a CNR study that goes beyond the available statistics.
And luckily May has got its act together when it comes to boiling. The temperature, although still higher, moved closer to normal: the regional average value for the month was 17.1°C, with a +0.4°C compared to the historical reference period 1991-2020. Since August 2023, in the monthly calculation of thermal surpluses, it has not happened that there has been a difference of less than one degree. Despite the almost normality of May «the average temperature of the last 12 months (June 2023-May 2024) reaches the threshold of 16°C and exceeds that of +2°C anomaly compared to the historical average 1991-2020, – we read in report – values never recorded before by our network, annual record (not necessarily solar) starting from 1961″. June also promises well, after last week’s heat wave: so far we are at a monthly average for the Marche of almost 22° C., +0.8 compared to the historical standard of the thirty years.
Warm and dry
A very warm 2024 so far, but also drier than the average of the last thirty years. May was the fourth month of 2024 with below-normal precipitation. Only March was an exception, closing with a level of rainfall in line with the historical trend. But Amap analysts point out, for completeness of reconstruction, that the average regional total of 63 mm, corresponding to an anomaly of -13%, «may not be sufficiently representative of the actual quantity of rain that fell on the entire regional territory as, very often, the rainfall events were of a thermo-convective nature and therefore distributed in a patchy pattern”.
Intense and localized phenomena, in practice, which cannot always be measured, even with a very widespread network of weather stations such as that of Amap Marche, which has around 70 detection points distributed across the entire regional territory. In the update to the fifth month of the year, the precipitation deficit recorded by the agency’s Agrometeo service is 22% compared to 1991-2020 and the average total for the period is 263 mm. The average total precipitation of the last twelve months (June 2023 – May 2024) was 660 mm (-22% compared to 1991-2020) and is the eighth lowest value since 1961. And also the month of June, in the budget of the first three weeks, does not offer an encouraging trend. So far the average rainfall for the month in the Marche has been 18.4 mm and it is unlikely that the level of 61.4 mm recorded as a trend in the period 1991-2020 will be reached.
The alarm
The effects can already be seen on the territory, with drought alarms raised in various areas of the region. Especially in the Piceno area, where the prefect of Ascoli invited the mayors to sign ordinances to avoid unnecessary use of water resources, and in the Pesaro area, where in the internal areas there has been a strong regression in the flow of the springs, up to 25%.
And it won’t get better in the future, if it is true that a study presented in recent days by the Water Value Community for Italy of The European House – Ambrosetti includes the Marche among the 12 Italian regions with high water stress. Experts estimate that by 2030 stress will intensify in some regions, with an increase of 8.7% in Liguria, 6.1% in Friuli-Venezia Giulia and 5.7% in Marche.
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