Flurry of emotions also for the Azzurri during and after Croatia-Albania. Italy was about to celebrate even before playing Spain tomorrow. The match at the Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen scheduled for 9pm tomorrow remains fundamental but the result that was maturing between the other two rivals in the group – with the temporary success of Albania – was about to make the road to the round of 16 downhill. The mood changed until the 96th minute: with the Croatians ahead, everything would have been harder for Italy but the final 2-2, thanks to Albania’s last-gasp goal, is good news for Spalletti’s national team. The table now says: Spain 3 points (+3 goal difference), Italy 3 points (+1 goal difference), Albania 1 point (with two games played, -1 goal difference), Croatia 1 point (with two games played, – 3 goal difference).
Albania dreams for 74 minutes
For an hour and a quarter Albania kept Croatia in check, thanks to Laci’s goal in the first half. By beating the Croatians, Sylvinho’s national team would have also helped the Azzurri, who have the advantage in the direct clash against them, then the turnaround and the Croatian overtaking but also with the final 2-2 the Albanians probably gave a hand to Spalletti . The rules say that the top two in each group advance to the next stage. together with the four best third-placed teams.
What the regulation says
If two or more teams from the same group are equal on points, head-to-head matches are considered first. If two or more teams are still equal on points, the best goal difference in head-to-head matches is considered and, if necessary, the total number of goals scored. If two teams have the same points in the standings and have drawn the direct match then the best goal difference in all the matches in the group and possibly the total number of goals is considered. The last two possibilities in the event of a further draw are those that lead to considering the number of wins in the group and finally the fairplay score, which can be obtained by counting yellows and expulsions received in the three matches of the group.
Italy almost in the round of 16 with a draw tomorrow
If there are three or four teams on equal points, the calculation of direct clashes and of the goals scored is done on all the teams involved, until the so-called separate ranking is obtained. The separate ranking will be important not only to understand who will be first and second in the event of an equal points finish, but also to determine which will be the best third-placed teams who will have the chance to play in the round of 16. From 2016 to 2021, three out of eight teams managed to qualify for the round of 16 with just three points. By virtue of this argument, a draw between Spalletti’s national team and La Roja would give both of them the almost certainty of qualifying for the round of 16. There would only have to be a 3-0 collapse of the Italian national team for us to finish third but even in that case the chances of being rescued in the round of 16 as the best third would be very high
Also up for grabs is first place in the group, which would guarantee Italy a theoretically more approachable opponent in the next phase of the European Championships. A possible draw against Spain would allow La Roja to secure first place thanks to goal difference, currently ahead of the Azzurri thanks to the 3-0 inflicted on Croatia.
Luis de la Fuente’s national team will close the group stage against Albania on Monday 24 June, while Italy will face Croatia on the same day. In the event of a tie on points with Spain, the Azzurri will have to score enough goals to overturn the goal difference and be able to take first place. It would be a different story if Italy were to win tomorrow against the Red Furies: in that case, first place in the group would be one step away. However, Croatia needs a feat, given the terrible goal difference, while the Albanians, after today’s 2-2 draw, will play the match of their lives against the Spanish.
