Everything is ready for the television comparison most awaited of the year, the one between Giorgia Meloni and Elly Schlein. The two leaders of the main Italian parties will compete in the setting of Porta A Porta, the historic living room of Bruno Vespa, who will also be the moderator of the meeting. It will be held on 23 May, just two weeks after the European elections on 8 and 9 June. Their parties, at least according to the political pollswill once again be the most voted, with a gap that is getting shorter from week to week and which suggests that the wind is changing.
The debate on TV between Meloni and Schlein
The PD continues to gather consensus, with the Dem electorate seeming to renew their confidence in the secretary from week to week. Now stable at 20%, he does not seem threatened in the leadership of Campo Largo by other formations, above all the 5 Star Movement, which is instead starting to lose ground. The balance between the two big names of the centre-left could change further in view of the television confrontation that is already causing discussion.
A debate between the leader of the majority and that of the opposition does not please the Five Star Movement, who have already underlined how the contrast between the two is only an internal dynamic that has little to do with the European elections. Of course, even for the election of the community parliament it will be necessary to choose between right and left, but the rules are different from the national ones, and the results could – and should – be very different from those of political consultations.
Increasingly less compact coalitions
The other great point made by the Grillini ranks, and in particular by Dario Carotenuto, M5s group leader in the Rai Supervisory Commission, is that “each political force goes its own way” and “Rai cannot pretend that the conflict is only a two”. Reducing the competition to just two formations, excluding the other parties, actually appears to be a singular move given that our system does not provide for the bipolar disorder American style or the premiership.
The coalitions appear less and less cohesive at this moment: Brothers of Italy is continuing to lose ground to the delight of its allies, who aim to return to 10%. The goal is still very far away, but it is not excluded that the European elections could end with a significant exploit Forza Italia or of League.
And if between PD and the M5s The short season of the alliance seems to be over, even in the Campo Largo the balance is changing. Greens and the Left they now seem stable above 4%, the threshold for community consultations. The moderates also hover around 4%. United States of Europe by Matteo Renzi and Emma Bonino, actually already projected towards 5%, and Action by Carlo Calenda, a very small step away from the critical percentage.
Who goes up and who goes down in political polls
The Supermedia of YouTrend And Act calculates the weighted average of voting intentions of Italians detected between 26 April and 8 May. The one dated May 10th takes into consideration the data provided by Emg, Eumetra, Euromedia, Piepoli, Quorum, Swg and Tecnè.
Let’s see the data from the new surveys, with the voting intentions of the last 15 days. In brackets the comparison with the data collected in the previous 15 days from previous political polls.
- Brothers of Italy: 27.2% (-0.4);
- Democratic Party: 20.6% (+0.5);
- 5 Star Movement: 15.9% (-0.4);
- Forza Italia: 8.6% (+0.1);
- League: 8.4% (+0.3);
- United States of Europe 4.7% (+0.1);
- Greens and Left Alliance: 4.1% (+0.1);
- Share: 3.9% (+0.1);
- Freedom: 2.1% (=);
- Peace Earth Dignity: 2% (+0.2).
