On the anniversary of the victory in the Second World War, the Russian leader appears confident in the developments of the conflict in Ukraine and beyond. And while the Russian troops advance, the Ukrainians begin conscripting prisoners to make up for the lack of personnel
05/09/2024
“We move forward relying on our centuries-old traditions and are confident that together we will ensure a free and secure future for Russia.” The words of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has just inaugurated his fifth term in office, resonate with optimism. From his seat in Red Square, where he is celebrating the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany during the Second World War, the Kremlin leader addressed his best wishes to the troops engaged in Ukraine (some of whom took part in the traditional parade military), and accused the West of “fueling regional conflicts, inter-ethnic and inter-religious struggles and of trying to contain sovereign and independent centers of global development”, adding that Russia will do everything to avoid a global confrontation but which will not accept threats of any kind, and underlining that its strategic forces are “combat ready” in a new use of nuclear rhetoric.
Putin’s optimism is reflected in the news coming from the front, where Moscow’s armed forces are advancing. Slowly, but they advance. With its large troop concentrations, Russia has the advantage in relations force-on-force and force-to-terrain on Ukrainian defenses. This advantage, together with its superior artillery fire capabilities, could allow Russian forces to break through enemy lines in several sectors of the front. “In the last week, Ukrainian positions near Ocheretyne and Khasiv Yar (which the Russians had promised to occupy in time for today’s anniversary ed) continued to deteriorate. Evidence suggests that Russian combat formations advanced on these cities, simultaneously conducting positional combat in the direction of Siversk,” notes Can Kasapoğlu, nonresident senior fellow of the Hudson Institute, which also suggests that “current developments on the battlefield suggest that Russian forces may soon push to capture key cities such as Kharkiv and Sumy, as a prelude to a broader offensive that is likely to begin this month.” summer”.
To resist opposing offensive pressure, Kyiv’s forces need ammunition and personnel. In the first case, the approval of the aid package by the US Congress represents an important step but not sufficient, both in terms of quantity and timing. The same thing can be said for the progress recorded at European level on the use of frozen Russian assets. Second Mark T. Kimmittretired US Army brigadier general and former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, the US administration and its allies should relax the restrictive rules of engagement they have imposed on Western-supplied equipment, allowing Ukraine to use this equipment to its full potential, in the wake of what London has already done, to overcome the dynamics of self-deterrence that the Euro-Atlantic partners have adopted de facto self-imposed; furthermore, the United States should draw directly on military stockpiles kept aside for further emergency situations, suggesting that their use to avoid a collapse of Ukraine would prevent (at least in part) the occurrence of similar contingencies.
Regarding the personnel issue, to address an increasingly pressing shortage, Ukraine has decided to open up the recruitment of certain types of convicts, offering them a reduction or cancellation of their sentences in exchange for their service at the front. However, as the Financial Timesthis initiative would conscript only a fraction of the hundreds of thousands of fresh soldiers that Ukraine says it needs this year to contain the advance of Moscow’s forces.
