At sixty you are not yet old, for some people perhaps their energy is starting to wane but beware of using the word “old”. Well, at forty years the MOSE, although precious and necessary, could already be under stress, obsolete and not very useful due to climate change and its impacts. This is highlighted by research coordinated by Ca’ Foscari University (published in the journal «Regional Environmental Change»): «If the MOSE were activated with tidal forecasts starting from 110 centimeters above sea level, the 50 consecutive days of closure could be exceeded of the Lagoon in the last quarter of a century”. A very intense activity: setting a hypothetical ceiling of 50 closures per year (over 10 times the planned limit), the Mose could be excessively stressed already around 2060 in the worst case scenario, in 2070 in the best one and the large marine infrastructure will no longer be enough.
The answer for the short-medium term
According to the researchers, corrective measures and, above all, investments are therefore needed: the pumping of sea water into the aquifers to combat subsidence, protection dams like those in Holland, the diversion of small rivers and canals that flow into the lagoon, the moving of the port into the sea open, the implementation of the sewage system. The answer for the short-medium term in the Ca’ Foscari study would be to reduce closures, for example by raising the threshold beyond the current 110 centimeters of tide, otherwise protecting the parts of the city that would be submerged. The long-term answer instead involves going beyond the MOSE. The authors put their hands forward: precise estimates on maintenance costs and operating limits are not available, we are working by hypothesis, but we will continue to collect data to update the study.
2024 is a record year
From the beginning of the year to May 1st there were 80 episodes of high water in Venice, moments in which Piazza San Marco found itself flooded or risked falling under; in 14 cases the Mose rose and 2024 became a record year: the tides had not given similar data since 1879. The University’s research therefore fits perfectly: «Our results highlight the importance of integrating and reviewing the city’s protection strategies, considering the rise in sea level and its economic and environmental implications – explains Carlo Giupponi, professor of Environmental Economics at Ca’ Foscari and coordinator of the study -. An integrated, socio-economic and environmental approach is crucial, capable of effectively managing possible future scenarios, to protect this unique heritage.”
The study assessed the economic impact and future prospects of the MOSE considering different climate change and sea level rise scenarios. Scholars question the wear and tear of the infrastructure and what the necessary strategies will be for when the large barriers are no longer sufficient. The economic benefits, in the researchers’ projections, “significantly exceed the investment costs and economic losses”, but «the increase in closures poses challenges to the sustainability of the infrastructure in the medium and long term raising concerns about the impact on the quality of the lagoon ecosystem. The Mose risks becoming unusable much sooner than its designers planned, almost 50 years ago, without taking climate change into account.”
The teacher: «Rethinking Venice»
Andrea Rinaldo, professor of hydraulic constructions at the University of Padua and winner of the “Nobel prize for water” in 2023, takes up a recent international study: «Climate change has a huge impact and is no longer just hypothetical. And an extra meter, as studies predict in the next century, is not even the most catastrophic hypothesis, with the melting of the ice we would be talking about 7 meters more. Of course, sooner or later the Mose will no longer be good for many reasons, but based on recent studies, 2060 is too early a date, with adequate maintenance the Mose can function for a century even with exceptional high waters”. However, «it is estimated that it should be closed 260 times a year, a huge number, which would significantly change the ecology of the Lagoon, and this is what we must focus on – notes Rinaldo -. In fact, this latest study requires us to rethink not so much the post-Mose period, but to rethink Venice and I can only agree. To safeguard the city, a secular, intergenerational and coordinated rethink is needed for a model of social, economic and tourism development.”
