Studio Engie and Polytechnic: the current scenario would not allow the decarbonisation targets set by the PNIEC to be achieved
[8 Maggio 2024]
According to the study “Roadmap to 2030: scenarios and policy indications in light of the new decarbonisation targets”, carried out by Engie in collaboration with the Energy & Strategy research group of the Department of Management Engineering of the Polytechnic of Milan <, it is necessary to «Increase efficiency in the use of energy, overcome dependence on fossil fuels, significantly increase the use of renewable energy and modulate the legislative and regulatory framework to achieve the objectives of reducing emissions and energy consumption".
The results of the study were presented today in Rome during the event “The Efficient Transition: new solutions for the energy of the future”, which saw the participation of institutions, companies and public administrations, the Minister of the Environment and Security energy, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, the president of ARERA, Stefano Besseghini, the president of the GSE, Paolo Arrigoni, to analyze the technical, economic and regulatory aspects necessary to achieve the decarbonisation targets for 2030.
The study starts from the analysis of the current Italian emissions context and underlines that «In 2022, Italy reduced its emissions by approximately 30% compared to 2005. However, considering the current market and regulatory trends, including those relating to the superbonus, from 2022 to 2030 a reduction of -46 MtCO2 is expected, which is much lower than the European targets which impose a reduction of -137 MtCO2 (more than 50% of emissions compared to 2005)”.
Therefore, the study highlights that with this trend «It is not possible to achieve either the European objectives or the national emission reduction targets already promoted within the PNIEC. An acceleration in this direction is needed which multiplies efforts. The greatest contribution to addressing European challenges can derive from two strategic pillars: the increase in energy efficiency solutions and renewable energy sources. On the energy efficiency front, the PNIEC identifies an objective of 100 Mtoe by 2030. Considering the current market and regulatory trends, the country is projected towards 109 Mtoe of final energy consumption by 2030 (-4 Mtoe compared to 2022), that is, a result distant from the PNIEC objectives and not even in line with the community objectives which require the achievement of 92.5 Mtoe (-21 Mtoe compared to 2022). It is therefore necessary to multiply the measures implemented to date.”
Vittorio Chiesa, Chairman POLIMI Graduate School of Management, recalled that «The energy transition poses extremely challenging objectives and requires a change of pace in the coming years. This includes, for example, the 2-3 times growth in renewable energy installations compared to the current situation, the diffusion of which is at the basis of the change in our country’s energy structure. But the transition is also achieved with the contribution of other solutions, quantitatively less significant, by acting on the relevant enabling elements: the adoption of technologies for energy efficiency in areas such as Public Administration, the diffusion of district heating, the management of the supply chain for large-scale biomethane production, storage for the increase in self-consumption solutions”.
The Public Administration is a representative and driving actor for energy efficiency, but the study underlines that «It is essential to implement further measures and strengthen the tools in force today, increasing the attractiveness of private investments, for example with the diffusion of formulas contractual agreements such as Energy Performance Contracts and Public Private Partnerships”.
As regards renewable energies, in 2021 they contributed 40% of the national electricity production mix and the study warns that «To achieve the objectives of the PNIEC for 2030, the weight of electricity from renewable sources on the energy mix should double to reach the 2030 target (65% of the mix), installing 3.5 times the photovoltaic capacity and 2.5 times the wind capacity compared to 2021. Storage must also be considered, a technology which, as the study underlines, integrated into a power system between 200 kW and 10 MW can further increase the share of self-consumption, enabling greater diffusion of renewable production”.
Compared to current technologies useful for energy efficiency and decarbonisation (such as photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, storage and hydrogen), the analysis shows that the supply chain is still underdeveloped: «In 2021, 100% of the targets were still to cover. On this issue, it is essential to increase efforts to simplify authorization processes and accelerate the implementation of investments by operators.” A focus on the residential and industrial sectors highlights the need for an investment of a further 60 billion to achieve at least the PNIEC objectives.
District heating can play a supporting role in decarbonisation and efficiency in the residential sector: currently the diffusion of this technology reaches 9.7 TWh per year, but it has a development potential 4 times higher: by 2030, 38 TWh can be produced useful for making almost 10% of residential heating demand more efficient, with annual investments of between 7 and 10 billion euros. The study points out that «Even in this case, it is necessary to attract investments by providing an organic policy framework that contemplates rules and incentives in a synergistic manner, stimulating demand through the introduction, for example, of obligations to connect to the network for new buildings”.
The analysis of technologies capable of supporting the energy transition sees biomethane as a strong strategic ally. The PNIEC update provides for an acceleration of the use of biomethane as a renewable alternative for the production of thermal energy. However, currently the incentive mechanism is limited in time and fragmentation in the supply chain creates inefficiencies and poor scalability. It is necessary to create aggregating entities and define a new incentive mechanism post-2026 to encourage the growth of the sector and achieve the 2030 objectives.
From the study it emerges, therefore, that «Italy has all the potential to be the laboratory of decarbonisation, but there is currently a delay compared to the European decarbonisation trajectory which institutions, in concert with sector operators, can fill by aiming on the appropriate strategic levers”.
Monica Iacono, CEO of Engie Italia, said that «The energy transition is a collective responsibility. It is not an easy path but it is a necessary challenge. Our job is to do everything to make it an opportunity. For us at Engie it is a daily commitment that we feel towards future generations. The photograph taken by the study carried out with the Polytechnic of Milan clearly tells us that it is necessary to accelerate and that the costs of the inertial scenario are higher than the investments necessary to reach the expected targets. Our hope is to offer, through this analysis, a useful contribution to the decisions and solutions that institutions, public administrations and businesses are called upon to adopt because we are convinced that the transition is also an opportunity for growth for the country”.
After receiving criticism of a government policy that does not seem up to what energy commitments and the climate situation would require, Pichetto Fratin concluded: «More tools are needed: tax deduction systems, incentive mechanisms such as white certificates for industry, stimulate innovation and digitalisation of networks. We are committed to preparing a regulatory framework that supports a long-term vision. Where resources are coordinated and rationalised, evaluating possible synergies between the different tools available. We must accompany and facilitate the transformation of our production system, in balance with decarbonisation. The key is to intervene with determination to have in-house skills and technologies that will be at the center of the transformation of the industrial system in a green way. We work to encourage development, creating a favorable environment for businesses.”
