The European Commission will ask Italy for a correction of the accounts amounting to 8 billion euros. Because the Superbonus and the new rules of the Stability Pact weigh on Rome’s debt. It will happen in the autumn, but the government cannot pretend nothing has happened today. Even if the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June. And already today the OECD confirms the growth numbers, while employment rises and the spread is under control. For this reason the executive had to calm enthusiasm about the Befana Bonus. And postpone the reduction from three to two Irpef rates until 2025. Now the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, fresh from his black belt in judo, will have to fight a lot both in Brussels and with his majority allies.
Multi-year trajectories
The print today he talks about the correction of the accounts amounting to 8 billion that Europe will ask Giorgia Meloni. In fact, the opening of the infringement procedure for excessive deficit is expected on 19 June. But Italy will be in the company of ten other countries. Then will come the multi-year trajectories of the Stability Pact. They allow up to seven years to put the accounts right. But then on September 20th the states will have to present the multi-year spending plans. And here the government will have to explain to Paolo Gentiloni how it intends to respect the commitments made with Brussels. According to the technicians’ estimates, the Commission will ask Italy for a correction equal to four decimals of GDP. That is eight billion. A manageable figure, at first glance. But at the end of the year the time will also come to keep electoral promises.
Cut spending?
Two, in particular. The tax exemption for incomes over 35 thousand euros and the merging of Irpef rates. Both require at least twenty billion and the government will not be able to finance them in deficit. Precisely because from this year that number will have to start decreasing. At that point Meloni and Giorgetti will have to choose. Either they cut pensions and welfare or ask the richest to make a sacrifice. Both paths would go against the electoral program with which Giorgia won the elections.
