Variable majorities could be the constant in the next European Parliament. And move the pendulum in one direction or the other, based on the individual dossiers up for vote, be it the Green Deal, industrial competitiveness or defense (the old and new priorities, that is, at the top of the EU agenda). In short, the three-headed “Ursula” grand coalition made up of popular people from the EPP (where Forza Italia sits), socialists and democrats from the S&D (the PD group) and liberal-centrists from Renew Europe (under whose banner we find Azione and Italia Viva ), which has proven to be more or less monolithic in the last five years between Brussels and Strasbourg, could, in the aftermath of the vote on 8-9 June, give way to a situation dominated, if anything, by greater fluidity in the hemicycle which has just welcomed the conclusion of the ninth legislature. Some anticipation of the trend has, moreover, already been seen in the last year and a half, when in the European Chamber the bulk of the People’s Party, with the support of some northern liberals, teamed up with the conservatives of the ECR (the EU group of FdI) and the sovereignists of Id (where the League sits) to slow down on some dossiers of the EU green plan, in the name of a softer line, and leaving room, in advance of the electoral season, for the first suggestions of “a ‘other possible majority’.
Meloni: «Write Giorgia and let’s change Europe. Left in opposition as in Italy.” 73 minute rally in Pescara
THE DISCLOSURES
The seats, in the next legislature, will go from 705 to 720 (76 remain for Italy), but looking at the numbers of the polls circulating less than 40 days after the opening of the polls, the “Ursula majority” could hold, at least on the paper, with EPP, S&D and Renew in slight decline but still credited together with over 400 seats. All projections agree that there is no match for the first two steps of the podium: this time too, they will be occupied by the EPP, given around 184 seats (increasing compared to the current 178) and the S&D, stable at 139 (today they are 140) . A position of strength that allows the People’s Party to claim the presidency of the Commission, at least at the start of negotiations (and unless the Draghi hypothesis materializes), while the Socialists to aspire to the leadership of the European Council or of the Eurochamber itself.
THE OPEN CHALLENGES
Behind them, however, the game is wide open for third place, the position that has allowed the Macronian-led liberals to hold the balance. On the one hand, there is the great recovery of the right, which should be further strengthened thanks to the performances of the Lepenists in France and the AfD in Germany, on the ID side, and of the Brothers of Italy and the Spaniards of Vox, for Ecr (someone , like the Polish Mateusz Morawiecki, dreams of attempting a merger between the two groups, so as to become the second largest in the room). On the other, the stability of the liberal universe. Everything could be decided for a handful of seats: the surveys still show Renew, Id and Ecr within touching distance of each other, between 87 and 82 elected each; well ahead of the Greens, sixth (about fifty seats), who in some cases had acted as a crutch for the current majority. But weighing future EU balances with an eye only to the European Parliament tells a half-baked story. The other “Chamber” of the EU legislature is the Council, the representative body of the governments of the 27. After the consecutive defeats for the socialists (who “hold” thanks to two injured Pedro Sánchez, in Spain, and Olaf Scholz, in Germany), the power map among EU leaders tilts in favor of the centre-right. It will be the capitals, after all, that will indicate the members of the future Commission and will divide up the portfolios of the next executive, “condemned” as always to the coexistence of different political orientations. And understanding what turn the next political cycle will take also inevitably depends on the future of Ursula von der Leyen, a candidate to succeed herself despite a series of missteps and a lack of enthusiasm among her followers. At the same time, this evening you will be engaged in Maastricht in the first debate on a continental scale with the other contenders for the top position of the Commission. Those who have already revealed their cards, of course.
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Read the full article at
The messenger
