An instant after the final whistle of the match against Olbia the big question arose among the Pontedera fans. That is: what are the chances of playing the first round of the play offs at home? Having said that the 2-2 on Sunday compromised the scenario a lot, causing the team to drop to eighth place and that the last match is in Carrara, let’s start by recalling the initial regulation of the play-offs. The 5th placed team hosts the 10th, the 6th receives the 9th and the 7th hosts the 8th. So to play at home you need to finish in fifth, sixth or seventh place. Considering that the 5th position is arithmetically unattainable, Canzi’s team can only aspire to the 6th and 7th seats. Playing in front of your fans means going through to the round with a win and a draw available. In the event of two or more teams finishing in a draw, the results of the direct matches are considered first, then the goal difference between the teams involved and finally the overall goal difference.
Now the ranking from 5th to 10th position says: Gubbio 56 points, Juventus NG 54, Pescara and Pontedera 52, Arezzo and Rimini 50. The calendar in the last round (matches all on Sunday at 8pm) offers Arezzo-Sestri Levante for these 6 teams , Carrarese-Pontedera, Fermana-Pescara, Gubbio-Rimini and Vis Pesaro-Juventus NG. Therefore, to finish sixth the Granata have only one combination: they must win on the pitch of the third in the standings (already sure of the placement) and hope that Juve and Pescara do not win on the pitches of equally unsafe ones. In fact, if the Bianconeri also draw and rise to 55, the Granata are sixth because they have the best head-to-head matches in their favor (victory and draw). If, however, Espeche and his teammates leave Carrara with a draw, they can no longer finish sixth, and to climb to 7th place they must hope that Pescara loses in Fermo and that Arezzo does not beat Sestri Levante because in the event of a 53-point draw points the Indian team is better off in terms of overall goal difference. However, if Rimini were to make the tie, the Granata would be seventh because they are favored by goal difference in head-to-head matches (4-0 and 1-3). In the event of a three-way finish, 7th would be Arezzo, 8th Pontedera and 9th Rimini, while in the case of a four-way finish (therefore with Pescara tied) 7th would be Pescara and Pontedera would finish 10th. Finally, in case of defeat, the Granata will finish between 8th and 10th position and will be forced to play away. So the answer to the big question is clear: to play at home on May 4th Pontedera must not lose against Carrarese and hope for some other misfortune. Stefano Lemmi
