April 23, 2024 at 5:52 pm
In 2024 the GDP of Emilia-Romagna will grow by 0.9%, settling compared to the +1.1% in 2023 which is the highest figure among the Italian regions with that of Lombardy.
The economic performance of the region, therefore, should remain slightly better than that of Italy, which sees growth of 0.7% in 2023 and 2024.
This is what emerges from the examination of the Unioncamere Emilia-Romagna research office on the macroeconomic forecasts for the region for 2024 based on the Scenarios for local economies developed by Prometeia. In 2023, Emilia-Romagna grew more than the euro area average (+0.5%).
In 2024, household consumption is expected to grow by +0.7%, below the GDP trend, also in an attempt to replenish the level of savings. Aggregate private consumption will be only slightly higher (+1.3%) compared to that before the pandemic and only 9.5% higher than in 2000. In 2023 the dynamics of gross fixed investments slowed down significantly (+5.1% compared to +8.3% in 2022), despite public support in particular for construction. A step backwards is expected in 2024 (-1.5%).
Last year the slowdown in world trade led to a slight decline in regional exports in real terms (-0.7%). Expectations for 2024 include a moderate recovery in foreign trade (+2.9%). At the end of 2024, the real value of regional exports should be almost double compared to the 2000 level: a sign of the importance assumed by foreign markets, but also of the greater dependence on them in supporting regional activity and incomes in the face of a lower capacity to produce added value from activities aimed at foreign markets. In 2023 the unemployment rate fell from 5% to 4.9%. In 2024 the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.4%.
