FqChart – European elections, the dance begins and the first surprises in the polls arrive

FQChart is the weekly arithmetic mean of surveys on Italians’ voting intentions exclusively for Il Fatto Quotidiano. All the polls published by the major opinion polling institutes in the week just ended contribute to the average.

Week from 8/4 to 14/4/2024

FdI 27.1% (-0.4)
PD 19.8% (+0.1)
M5S 16.2% (=)
FI+NM 8.6 (+0.5)
League 8.2% (=)
HIS 4.8% (new)
AVS 3.8 % (-0.2)
Action 3.6% (=)
Others 7.9

Less than two months to go European elections 2024 and a political framework characterized by new alliances, surprises and confirmations is already being defined.

First of all, the top three Italian parties by consensus they hold up well and they are above the result obtained in the 2022 elections. Brothers of Italy (FdI) is decreasing but is still at 27% average, the PD is close to 20% and Movement looks toned (16.2%).

The first surprise is the expected, definitive overtaking of Forza Italia (8,6) on League (8,2) thanks to a clever move by Antonio Tajani: run in the June elections together with We Moderates by Maurizio Lupi. Enough to distance the League by almost half a point, a margin that has a good chance of widening.

The second surprise is the electoral sign United States of Europe (SUE) namely ItaliaViva, +Europa, PSI and Libdem. A formation which, although it obtains a lower value than the simple arithmetic sum of the parties involved, manages to break through the 4% threshold, indeed it comes close to 5. An encouraging debut and which at the moment, predictably, seems to harm the missing partner or theAction by Carlo Calenda stalled at 3.6%.

However, there is also the concern of not reaching 4%. AVS – Green Left Alliance which is probably currently facing competition from Peace Earth DignityMichele Santoro’s list is still looking for sufficient signatures for the presentation.

The share of voters who would vote for “other parties” is growing, among which, in addition to the aforementioned Santoro, the super liste stands out Freedom of Cateno De Luca with 19 partners indicated in the symbol.

Source: Swg, Euromedia Research, Demopolis, Youtrend, Ixé, Eumetra, Tecnè