For Rafah there would already be a date and the army would now be ready to enter: this at least is the position expressed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who in a speech underlined how his government is oriented towards starting the operation in the city that marks the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. But quite a few have arrived from Washington brake: some officials have in fact stated that they are not aware of a date set by the Israeli forces for entry into Rafah, a circumstance also reiterated on US networks by the Secretary of State himself, Antony Blinken.
So what is the truth? On the Jerusalem Post some analysts have tried to explain the ambiguity of Netanyahu’s position starting from political concerns by the Israeli prime minister himself. “Bibi” must look at itself on several fronts: a international level, his concern concerns the specter of a halt to the normalization of relations with the Arab countries, led by the Emirates and Saudi Arabia; to internal level instead, his concern is linked to the either/or of Ben Gvir, leader of the religious ultra-right, according to whom without an operation in Gaza the current government is destined to fall.
International pressure on Netanyahu
US President Joe Biden has repeatedly underlined his absolute opposition to any operation on Rafah. The. are currently hosted here refugees coming from the other areas of the Gaza Strip involved in the conflict: it is estimated, in particular, that more than a million people are crowded in the camps set up on the outskirts of the town, a military operation would risk definitively precipitating the situation on a humanitarian level. Also because, as repeatedly underlined, beyond Rafah there is Egypt: it is impossible for the Palestinians present here to go further and find other areas of protection.
It is mainly based on this the White House’s objection to the immediate launch of an operation in the south of the Strip. Biden administration officials, before possibly giving support to their Israeli ally for the start of hostilities, would like to find alternative solutions aimed at avoiding further problems for the population: “The meetings to discuss the operations in Rafah – Secretary of State Blinken told the US media – will begin next week”. A way to reiterate that, despite what Netanyahu declared, no one has set a date for the start of ground operations in the south of the Strip. Much less from the Israeli war cabinet.
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And it is difficult to believe that what Blinken declared is not true. On the contrary, as highlighted in the Jerusalem Post, it is very likely that the Israeli prime minister himself has not yet planned anything in concrete terms. This is also demonstrated by the partial withdrawal of the Israeli army from the southern Gaza Strip, announced late on Sunday evening. According to Israeli analysts, Netanyahu would have changed his approach: no longer a strategy aimed at going straight to Rafah, but consultations and negotiations with the USA both for fear of losing the support of the White House and for the risk of frustrating the normalization paths with some Arab countries.
In the reports published in the last few hours in Israeli newspapers, explicit reference was made above all to United Arab Emirates And Saudi Arabia. With the former, Israel officially normalized relations in 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords. With the second however, the Jewish State is proceeding with a long and important process to reach a political and economic agreement as soon as possible. Netanyahu would not like to give up on the path of agreements with the Arab countries of the Gulf, Biden in the latest conversations would have referred to the impossibility of the governments of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh to dialogue with Israel in the event of an attack on Rafah. Hence a change in the prime minister’s position and a more careful assessment of the continuation of the conflict.
Ben Gvir’s warning
So, returning to the key question, why did Netanyahu announce that there already exists a date for the start of operations in Rafah? The reason is probably to be found in his need to appease the anger of the most extremist area of the coalition. Itamar Ben Gvirleader of Religious Zionism and minister of public security, said Monday that without operations in the southern Strip “it is very difficult to see Netanyahu still in the saddle as prime minister.” An explicit threat that leaves no room for misunderstanding: in the event of a ceasefire, agreements or simple postponement of actions in Rafah, his party will withdraw support and bring down the government.
In the video published in the last few hours, the Israeli prime minister probably wanted to tone down and reassure Ben Gvir: there is a date and there is a plan to start the offensive on the last bastion of Hamas. And Bibi’s message was probably also launched towards the Islamist movement itself: despite the consultations and dialogues initiated with the USA and other international actors, the Israeli government is still intent on striking the stronghold of the Palestinian group that attacked the Jewish state last October 7th.
The tension on the border with Lebanon does not go away
Meanwhile, the northern front also continues to be marked by tension. The exercises started by the Israeli army on Monday would have already ended, at least according to the reports of the IDF leaders. However, this does not dampen concerns: Israeli forces are now ready to face large-scale operations against Hezbollah, the Shiite movement based in the southern regions of Lebanon.
Just yesterday the mayor of Haifa, Yona Yahav, called on citizens to stock up on supplies and food to last at least two weeks in the event of a full-scale war with Hezbollah. Arab media also spoke of a possible night attack with two drones against the port of Haifa. The raid was apparently organized by the Islamic Resistance group in Iraq, but there was no confirmation of alarms in the port of Israel’s third largest city in the Jewish state media. Maybe just propaganda, but that’s enough to underline once again how the northern front could become the main one in a short time.
