India becomes the fourth largest economy in the world (and overtakes Japan)

India has overtaken Japan and has become the fourth largest economic power in the world. This is what emerges from the New Delhi government’s year-end economic review, published on the evening of Monday 29 December, according to which the The country’s gross domestic product reached 4.18 trillion dollars (3.555 trillion euros). The confirmation of the overtaking is not yet official, since the task of making it so falls to the International Monetary Fundwhich will compare the GDPs of different countries and draw up rankings but according to which India will not reach the milestone before 2026, when it estimates its GDP will be $4.51 trillion, compared to Japan’s $4.46 trillion.

The forecasts

Again according to the IMF, the United States, China and Germany are, in that order, the world’s largest economies. According to the forecasts of the Indian government’s economic review, within three years India could also take third place among the world economies, even surpassing Germany. In fact, by 2030, as stated in the document, India’s GDP could be worth around 7.3 trillion dollars. The real figure grew 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025-26 financial year (July to September), compared to 7.8% in the previous quarter and marking a six-quarter high. The advance communication from the government, as explained by the Sun 24 Hoursis mainly due to propaganda reasons, given the upcoming electoral events: in the next few months, in fact, five votes will be held in states where 18% of the population lives (around 265 million people).

The (upward) growth data

The analyzes show a strengthening of the country also in terms of exports: goods outside the borders, in fact, reached 38.13 billion dollars in November (from 36.43 billion in January), supported above all by electronics, engineering, pharmaceutical and oil products. Domestic demand also recorded an expansion, with an increase in private consumption, despite political uncertainty as well as that linked to the global trade situation with duties imposed by the United States. «The ambition is to reach the status of an upper-middle income country by 2047 – we read again in the document -, the year of the centenary of its independence. India is building on a solid foundation of economic growth, structural reforms and social progress.” The Reserve Bank of India also revised its growth forecasts upwards for the 2025-2026 financial year, marking +7.3%.

Incomes in India

In terms of income, however, the data is not so favorable for New Delhi. According to the World Bank, India’s GDP per capita in 2024 (the most recent) was $2,694, while the Japanese one is 32,487 dollars: approximately twelve times higher. GDP per capita in Germany stands at $56,103 and is 20 times greater than the figure in India.

December 31, 2025

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