Álvaro Sanmartín – Chief Economist, Amchor IS – believes that in the Eurozone economic activity continues to improve and he believes it will continue on this path in the coming quartersso that growth could be around or even above 1% in 2024. Private consumption – writes Álvaro Sanmartin – is benefiting from the increase in real wages, very low levels of unemployment and an extraordinarily healthy budget situation to date part of European families.
According to Álvaro Sanmartín, the industry could be stimulated in the coming quarters by the eventual end of downward adjustments in inventories; According to the expert, fiscal policy will be anything but tight this year and long-term real rates remain very low. In the meantime, the expert writes, underlying inflation is also pointing in the right direction, in a context in which inflation expectations remain very well anchored.
The ECBreports Álvaro Sanmartín, It’s very dovish and has pretty much guaranteed a rate cut in June, perhaps influenced by the economic weakness shown by Germany and also by the terrible budget data of countries such as France. However, Álvaro Sanmartín does not rule out that interest rates in our region will end fall this year to a lesser extent than that currently discounted by the European Central Bank itself.
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