ROMA – Yes just under 120 points to just over 60. It is the performance of the spread between the 10-year BTP and the German Bund during 2025. The year that ends will be remembered as that of the rediscovered reliability of Italian public debt, which basically means two things for investors: an appreciation of the government bonds in the portfolio and lower returns for new issues. Having said that of the past, let’s try to understand what to expect for the new year, during which the Treasury Ministry will have to deal with maturities for approximately 400 billion euros.
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“With the interest rate curve tending to steepen (short maturities remain low, but yields on the long end increase, ndr) it will not be easy for the Mef to schedule new issues, especially those intended for small savers”, comments Massimo Maria Gionso, partner of Nextam Partners. “Financing in the short term costs less, financing for the long term allows you to set a cost and not think about it again for years; the intermediate ones are perhaps the most appreciated by the general public“. As for yields, adds Gionso, it is necessary to consider as parameters that the four-year curve offers a return of around 2.50%, the eight-year one of around 3.30%. Of course, if inflation were to stabilize around 1.5%, as in recent months, the yield would be positive in real terms, also considering the12.5% rate on capital gains.
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Issues for retail customers
With the ECB which will no longer offer direct support to public debt issues, the MEF will have to refer to private demand and will probably continue to encourage subscription by Italian families, also with a view to reducing dependence on international capital.
Among the securities for retail customers, new issues of the BTp Valore are arriving, which is characterized by the step up mechanism (lower coupons in the first years and higher thereafter) and by a final prize for the benefit of savers who purchase it during the placement period and hold it until maturity. “There are no official dates yet: the choice will depend on the interest rate context and financing needs,” explains David Coppini, investment manager at First Capital. How much could they make? There is no ex ante promise: retail placements tend to be built competitively compared to the returns already present on the market at that time. Coppini cites a useful example for orientation: inOctober 2025 issue the minimum guaranteed rates were 2.60% (in the first three years), 3.10% (the fourth and fifth) and 4.00% (6–7), with a 0.8% loyalty bonus for those who bought in placement and held until maturity. “If market rates were to fall in 2026, the new coupons will also tend to reflect this; if they remain higher, the opposite.”
Focus on inflation
It is possible that the new year will also see aissue of the BTp Italialong-term government bond linked to the dynamics of national inflation. As a reference, in the May 2025 issue the Mef set the minimum guaranteed real rate at 1.85% and the loyalty bonus at 1% for those who purchased in placement and held until maturity. “From the investor’s perspective, if he expects higher than expected inflation, indexation can help, but if he expects high rates or volatility, it may make sense to stay shorter with maturities,” adds Coppini.
There will be no shortage, then, periodic BoT emissionswhich are short-term securities, ideal for managing liquidity. The return in this case is given by the “gap” between price and reimbursement of 100, with the fluctuations usually being very limited. As a recent example, in the auction of 10 December last, the annual BoT expiring in December 2026 was assigned with a gross yield of 2.181%.
