The result of the elections in France sees the far right as favoured National Rally who is weaving local deals with Republican candidates. But the latest polls say that the united left is advancing and Macron he managed, a week after the new vote, to recover 4% compared to the elections of 9 June.
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Elections in France, polls one week after the vote
The numbers were published by the conservative newspaper Le Figaro: the Rassemblement National stands at 34%, still up 2.6 percentage points compared to the European elections and following it is not the president’s party, but the left-wing bloc of New Popular Front at 29%. It is only in third place, with a gap that is still wide even if decreasing Renaissance of Macron, at 22%. The gap from the Rassemblement National decreases by 4 points but remains very wide and, in the meantime, the alternative left-wing bloc rises and seriously undermines the far right, leaving Macron out of the picture.
The reasons for these important variations in such a short time may also be linked to the data on the possible turnout which, according to the survey, should be very high, around 64%, five points more than the 2022 legislative elections. A sign that some French people believe this important vote and, in the event of runoffs, also the possible transmigration of votes from the Macronian electorate to the left could prevent Le Pen from gaining a majority in the Assembly.
According to some analyses, Macron would like to convince the moderates who voted for Glucksmann’s socialists in the European elections to vote for him, estimated at around 14 percent. The idea is that the electorate of the Rassemblement National is more solid and difficult to contest, while many moderate center-left voters could decide to vote for Macron in the legislative elections, frightened by the more radical parties that have entered the Nouveau Front Populaire. For this reason, the president’s strategy is to harshly criticize Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, which is precisely the party of the coalition on the left with the most intransigent positions.
In recent days, for example, Macron has defined the electoral program of the left as “totally immigrationist”, that is, very favorable to irregular immigration, with the aim also in this case of scaring the more moderate voters of the centre-left.
According to polls, Macron’s strategy is plausible: between a sixth and a third of Green and Socialist voters could decide not to vote for the Nouveau Front Populaire in the legislative elections and could consider voting for Renaissance. At the same time, however, Renaissance has decided not to present any candidate in 67 constituencies, where he believes he cannot win against either the Rassemblement National or the Nouveau Front Populaire. Also for this reason, some observers have defined his electoral strategy as “confused” in some respects.
Various polls are also circulating and the choice to dissolve the chambers following the very positive result of the far right in the European elections was polarising. A survey carried out by the Elabe study center for the BFMTV television network found that the French are divided on the issue: 58 percent think it was a good move, 41 percent don’t. But another interesting fact that emerges from this survey is that the decision was received much more positively among the voters of Rassemblement National, the far-right party that won the European elections, than among those of the left.
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