Marine Le Pen hopes that the voters called to express their opinion for the EU Parliament will teach Macron a lesson. And, looking at the polls, although France is not getting very excited about the European vote, she will succeed: she could even double it, obtaining 33% of the vote. The French president explains Francesco De Remigis, former correspondent from Paris and expert on international politics for Il Giornale, pays for the downgrading of France’s rating by S&P but also for its hyperbelligerent positions in relation to the war in Ukraine, especially now that its rival has condemned the invasion of Russia, effectively distancing itself from Putin, with whom it was accused of having connections. In short, a defeat is brewing for Macron. While the Rassemblement national from a European perspective could get closer to the Brothers of Italy, perhaps voting on certain measures together with the popular ones. Nobody in France talks about leaving the EU anymore, but everyone wants to change it.
How heartfelt is the campaign for the European vote in France and what themes does it focus on?
The French institute Elabe expects participation between 48% and 52%, a level comparable to the 2019 European elections. There is a certain mobilization, not great enthusiasm. National issues dominate: bill prices, purchasing power. And there is a risk of a post-vote earthquake.
Is it a Macron-Le Pen referendum?
Marine Le Pen is trying to go in this direction, but there is a third wheel, the socialist leader Raphaël Glucksmann, who could take second place from Macron’s candidate. Elabe also explains that one in three voters could change their mind, particularly on the left. The liberals are more at risk than the Head of State. Macron has been immortalized in leaflets with his leader Valérie Hayer, and will go on TV. But it’s late, the downgrading of France’s rating by S&P was the final blow.
Does the National Rassemblement risk doubling the president’s party?
At this point it’s almost a certainty. Also because the others were unable to break through, crushed by the duel between the president’s list and that of the National Rassemblement.
What are the winning weapons: the candidacy of a young man like Bardella, more moderate choices compared to the old right?
Le Pen is not a candidate, but she is campaigning and asking the French to use their vote to give Macron the worst beating of his life: anything but moderate in tone. Bardella, the frontman, in the event of a landslide victory, will ask for the dissolution of the National Assembly on Sunday, which however will not be granted by Macron.
Bardella also challenged Prime Minister Attal on TV, how did it go?
It didn’t come out very well, but its following is large and more transversal than you might think, even on TikTok. He says he wants to change European institutions without destabilizing them. He accuses Brussels of deciding rules that set energy prices, which link the price of French electricity to that of German coal or gas. In his program he has an exit from these rules, so that, he says, France can find a national price for electricity. He represents a strong identity-based thought and has an advantage when it comes to immigration and security.
How can this advantage be explained?
Comes from suburbs, has a path that many young people in France could take. We know that it doesn’t happen often, but this allows him to argue that it is possible to be born in a difficult neighborhood and choose a path of growth in République rather than destabilizing it by giving in to delinquency, radical Islam or drug trafficking, which in France is also a plague among minors.
Can a parallel be drawn between the changes of the RN and those of Fratelli d’Italia?
Of course, in perspective. Even if Meloni has not changed his ideas, he has pragmatically adapted government action to the tasks and international crises by taking sides in defense of Ukraine and participating in discussions within the EU to change what has not worked, such as the Green Deal or the Asylum and Immigration Pact. Le Pen limits herself to opposing this EU, having never won the presidential elections.
Is a rapprochement between Le Pen and Meloni possible between their two parties?
I don’t think they are incompatible, even if there are differences. It is premature to make predictions, but the hypothesis of a conservative and identitarian right that votes with the People’s Party on certain measures, on the Italian model, is not fantasy. There was a rapprochement on Le Pen’s part when he slammed the door on the Germans of AfD, the true far right that no one with the ambition of having a role in the EU wants alongside. The two right-wing parties of Meloni and Le Pen could work with the EPP, attracting the votes of the liberals on individual dossiers.
Has the left managed to carve out a space for itself?
The left has distinguished itself in stigmatizing Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip against Hamas, without clear distinctions between Palestinians and terrorists. The deputies of France Insoumise have asked Macron to recognize the Palestinian state. They promised to do it every week. They aim to exceed at least 6%, because the socialist Glucksmann managed to impose himself, but his turnaround remains to be verified. Only 53% of its potential voters say they are sure of their choice. Some might veer towards Mélenchon’s extreme left, others towards Macron or the Greens who are floating at 5%, defying the threshold.
Do Macron’s positions on the war in Ukraine, with his approval of a possible dispatch of French troops and the use of weapons against targets in Russian territory, gain support?
They certainly allowed Le Pen to sting the president, telling the French that Macron wants France at war with Russia, generating apprehension but also debate. Le Pen has stigmatized those “mechanisms” that she would oppose; to anything that could create the risk of a global conflict, therefore not only to the idea of sending men but also of allowing Kiev to fire on the territory of the Russian Federation with Western weapons. Macron, by raising his anti-Putin tone, hoped to trap Lepenists by recalling past ties with Moscow, but Le Pen changed his position, surprising the majority with a clear condemnation of the Russian invasion. He did so in March and, despite abstaining on the Paris-Kiev bilateral security agreement, for the first time he expressed clear support “for the attacked Ukrainian nation”.
How does public opinion view the war?
The percentage of those in favor of armed support in Kiev has fallen by more than 10 points compared to June 2023, but remains at 40%. More than 6 in 10 French people consider Putin a threat. Le Pen asks to find the path to dialogue with Russia. Macron, after the moral suasion with China, for an Olympic truce that failed in the bud, maintains that Putin should not win. He gave in to the American line by rejecting even the invitation to the Russians to the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of D-Day. And he suffers intimidating actions such as coffins at the Eiffel Tower and fake news coming from groups close to Moscow who are trying to destabilize France in view of the Games.
The tractor protest is back in the news. A sign that there is always a bit of distrust towards the EU?
There is no longer the specter of the Polish plumber who fueled the wave of anti-Europeanism by generating the 2005 no to the European Constitution. No one on the right talks about Frexit itself anymore, the debate is on too much EU bureaucracy, on the lack of attention to the real lives of citizens, producers, entrepreneurs, farmers and breeders. More than distrust, it seems to me that there is a desire for change. Everyone is asking for it, even Macron!, who is pushing to invest in rearmament and European industry. However, the percentage of French who do not follow the dynamics of Brussels remains very high: they are of no interest at all.
(Paolo Rossetti)
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