Ukrainian war, what stage is it at? From the possible Russian offensive in the summer to Kiev’s resistance in the air and by sea

The first four months of 2024 have marked one of the most difficult and tense periods in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has now lasted for a decade, starting in 2014. Ukrainian forces find themselves having to resist along the entire front line in front of a Russian army that has not only reconstituted itself, but also enjoys the support of a Russian economy reconverted to war mode as well as massive Chinese support. Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, commented in a December 2023 interview with Newsweek that 2024 will be a year of great challenges for Ukraine, suggesting that Kiev’s forces would have to take a more defensive position to achieve any success. Moscow seems to want to aim for long-term attrition of the adversary (the so-called “meat grinder strategy”) rather than immediate results. This strategy manifested itself clearly during the battles for key cities such as Vuhledar and Bakhmut, where Russian losses were particularly high, but still led to the desired results.