Russia needs new weapons for war, Ukraine prepares to welcome F-16s. Major maneuvers between Moscow and Kiev in a crucial phase of the conflict, between plans for new attacks and changing strategies.
Ukraine, after about 5 months with its back against the wall, awaits the arrival of the weapons that the United States included in the 61 billion dollar package recently approved by Congress. From Washington, which has already sent ATACMS long-range missiles, a special supply from the Pentagon with Patriot systems will also arrive. Kiev, therefore, will be able to counter with new tools the probable offensive that Russia is preparing to launch between the end of spring and the beginning of summer. The Ukrainian forces, forced to ration ammunition for months, will be able to adopt a different attitude and consequently a different strategy.
The picture could change significantly in the next few days due to the arrival on the scene of a new ‘protagonist’. Ukraine is preparing to welcome the arrival of the F-16 jets after the Orthodox Easter, which is celebrated on Sunday 5 May.
Ilya Yevlash, spokesperson for the Kiev air force, refers to the date. “We are waiting”, he says – as reported by the Ukrainian media and as Newsweek relaunches – and announces that the planes could ‘debut’ “after Easter”. For months, pilots have been training to exploit the fighters, supplied in particular by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium.
It is not clear, at this point, what the impact of the F-16s would be on the balance in the field. In recent weeks, an anonymous Ukrainian military source highlighted to Politico that “the F-16s were needed in 2023, they are not good for 2024”. In recent months, the Dutch government has announced the dispatch of the planes “in the second quarter of 2024”. In March, Belgium committed to delivering the aircraft by the end of the year. “This year, more than one squadron of F-16s will begin arriving in Ukraine with pilots and maintenance personnel,” one of the latest communications from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Russia needs more weapons
Compared to Ukraine, so far Russia has been able to exhibit and exploit a clear superiority in terms of men, ammunition and means. Moscow pours soldiers to the front without interruption, with minimal attention to human losses. However, the issue of the weapons available, in terms of quantity and quality, is starting to become a topic to be addressed. The Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, turns the spotlight on the issue and calls for further effort from the war machine. Agreements with other countries – North Korea for artillery, Iran for drones – are fundamental but not enough.
“To maintain the required pace of the offensive… it is necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to the troops, primarily weapons,” Shoigu says after a meeting with the military leadership and in light of the needs illustrated by the Chief of Staff, General Valery Gerasimov.
Russia has been exerting constant pressure for months, particularly along the eastern front. Moscow’s forces have gained ground, forcing Kiev to make conservative choices and abandon some positions. Now, however, Ukraine is starting to receive weapons from the US and other Western coalition countries. Russia, which according to analysts and experts could launch a new offensive between the end of spring and the beginning of summer, will have to deal with more prepared enemies in the coming weeks.
