Ukraine retreats but Russia will not break through. This is the picture that emerges in this phase of the war according to the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank that monitors the conflict. Russian forces in particular are unlikely to achieve “operationally significant penetration” in the area west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, despite limited withdrawals of Ukrainian troops to surrounding villages.
The ISW’s assessment comes after yesterday’s decision by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky: the general announced that Ukrainian troops would retreat to the villages of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka, west of Avdiivka.
Syrsky said Ukraine would carry out targeted rotations of units in the area in an attempt to “restore combat capability” and provide a break for soldiers who have been at the front for months. Despite the withdrawal of Kiev’s forces, the ISW notes that without additional Russian troops, Moscow’s ability to make further rapid tactical progress in the area would likely be limited.
What changes with Kiev’s reinforcements
“The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional material will force the Russian command to accept that broader or deeper penetration in the near term is unlikely or to commit additional reserves to the area to continue pursuing tactical advantages,” the report continues. The American think tank notes that Ukrainian withdrawals from Berdychi , Semenivka and Novomykhailivka “have not facilitated, for the moment, rapid Russian tactical gains”.
The remarks echo a statement by Syrsky that while Russia succeeded with marginal progress in forcing the Ukrainians to retreat, it “failed to gain an operational advantage.”
Moscow continues to intensify its attacks along the front while Kiev deals with ammunition and air defense shortages, prioritizing the operation to capture Khasiv Yar, with a number between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian soldiers who are attempting to storm the town about 50 kilometers north of Avdiivka and the surrounding settlements.
“Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains in the direction of Avdiivka in the coming weeks,” American analysts say, “and Ukrainian commanders may decide to make further withdrawals if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions in the area.”
The next line of defensible settlements in the area is some distance from the Ukrainian defensive line that Russian forces have attacked since taking Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, although Ukrainian forces may be able to use defensible positions in the fields immediately to west of the current front line to slow down future Russian attacks.”
“Complete Ukrainian withdrawal to fortified positions further west of Avdiivka would likely allow Russian forces to make relatively rapid advances across these fields, although progress would likely only be rapid if Ukrainian forces did not attempt to hold the same positions in the fields.”
“The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements will likely allow Kiev forces to slow down Russian tactical gains and possibly stabilize the front – the ISW continues – Ukrainian forces fought with insufficient resources and faced a 1 to 3 man disadvantage northwest of Avdiivka, but still prevented more than one division of the power Russian combat force to make the kinds of progress that these disparities in forces and materials should in principle allow.”
“The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional material will force the Russian command to accept that wider or deeper penetration in the near term is unlikely or to commit additional reserves to the area to continue pursuing tactical gains,” the report concludes.
