Seen from the sky, the defenses set up by the Ukrainians in the Zaporizhzhia district look like a thin white line that stands out in the green of spring: an incomplete row of “dragon teeth”, concrete obstacles to stop the tanks, and a piece of excavated trench straight, as it was done in 1915, with the walls covered in canvas to reduce humidity. Nothing comparable to the powerful Russian bastions that about ten kilometers further south last summer crushed the Kiev army’s dreams of victory. This imperfect barrier is located behind Orichiv, a razed town where the front has been overturned: last July it was the rear of the Ukrainian attack, now it is one of the most worrying points of Moscow’s aggressive pressure.
Signs of a major assault by Putin
A series of signs raise fears that in the coming weeks Putin’s great assault could concentrate precisely on this plain: between Orichiv and the city of Zaporizhzhia there are sixty flat kilometers, without natural relief and without fortifications. The Ukrainians did not feel the need, because this was supposed to be the gateway through which to break out into Crimea. Now, however, everything has changed and the construction work to close the gap began too late, creating a terrifying situation. If the Russians managed to break through here, they could exploit the fords on the outskirts of the capital to cross the Dnipro river where it is less wide and then spread to the western bank. Or head further north, in the direction of the city of Dnipro, and take the Ukrainian brigades fighting in Donetsk from behind, cutting off the roads and railways that supply them.
Nobody knows what the Kremlin’s plans are. And many experts doubt whether it has enough men and equipment to manage a large-scale offensive. But many are convinced that if it attacks, it will do so precisely in this area because it is the least protected: there are no woods or hills to block the march of the enemy forces. Of course, even the smallest villages can become strongholds, as is happening now in the localities west of Avdiivka stubbornly defended by the Ukrainians: in such conditions, however, the human price for resistance is very high and today the Ukrainians have fewer and fewer reserves of soldiers to throw into the mix.
The role of the power plant
In this scenario, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could play a decisive role. The structure, located in Enerhodar on the eastern bank of the Dnipro over one hundred kilometers by road from the city, has underground warehouses and concrete warehouses which – according to Kiev’s accusations – would be used by the Russians to hide stocks of bullets, fuel and of tracked vehicles. The incursions by Ukrainian drones that put the safety of reactor number 6 at risk would have been aimed precisely at destroying this equipment, which is essential for supporting a massive attack. The suspicion – unconfirmed – is that Moscow could transform the nuclear plant into the launch pad for its offensive, using it to distribute supplies and shelter troops after the first fighting: a huge bunker, with an atomic heart.
The duels of drones, cannons and long-range rockets in the Zaporizhzhia district seem to indicate preliminary skirmishes of a major battle. The Russians in particular bombed and destroyed some road bridges behind the city: a way to isolate it and make supplies difficult.
In this exchange of in-depth incursions, the Ukrainians always try to extend their reach, resorting to new models of remote-controlled aircraft, one of which has a range of a thousand kilometers. In the last few hours Kiev has also intensified the launches of an innovative drone with a jet engine, used across the border against the Russian province of Belgorod. And it is bringing war into Russia’s interior, targeting refineries, war factories and airfields used by bombers.
The drone battle
Despite the propaganda claims, the effectiveness of these raids so far has been symbolic: they convey the will to fight to the bitter end, closing the door to compromises. Even if the attacks, coordinated by military intelligence, were directed against military objectives, the risk of errors and accidents is very high.
But the worse the situation at the front gets, the less Ukrainians seem to worry about the danger that the explosions in the Russian homeland will provoke an extreme reaction from the Kremlin. As General Zaluzhny, commander of the armed forces at the time, wrote already in the summer of 2022, the Ukrainians are also ready to face the explosion of tactical nuclear bombs: “They would not only be our problem, but above all Europe’s.”
