PARIS – The National Gathering arrives in the lead in the first round of the early legislative elections with 29.2%, according to the final count of the votes. With the addition of the list Republicans by Eric Ciotti the far-right bloc reaches 33.1%. The alliance of New Popular Front got 27.9%, the list Ensemble of the outgoing presidential majority 20%, the Republicans anti Ciotti 6.5% to which i. can be added Miscellaneous Right al 3,6%.
Now, ahead of the second round next Sunday, the far-right bloc is leading in most constituencies. The candidates of the Rassemblement National and Ciotti are in first place in 297 constituencies. Following are the candidates of the New Popular Front (155 circoscrizioni), the list of macronists (62)hey Republicans (34).
The far right is also advancing outside its historic strongholds, in new regions. For the first time in its history, Brittany saw RN candidates qualify for the second round in 26 constituencies, even leading in 5. Only the West of France held out, to the advantage of the presidential majority and its allies. The New Popular Front is instead higher in the Île-de-France, especially the suburbs and in the capital.
Already yesterday evening, exceeding 50% of the votes, some candidates were elected in the first round. In particular, Marine Le Pen and 39 other candidates from the Rassemblement National, 32 from the Nouveau Front Populaire and only two from the Ensemble list. According to the latest projection in seats from Ifop, updated with the first desistance agreements announced by the left and the Macronists, the Rassemblement National and Ciotti could win a maximum of 270 seats, while Ipsos predicts 10 more seats, or 280. The absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale is 289 deputies. Harris and Elabe, on the other hand, place the far-right bloc in the higher range, estimating that it could win between 295 and 310 seats.
According to calculations by the magazine Le Grand Continent, last night there were triangulars (three candidates qualified for the second round) in 319 constituencies. With the withdrawal of the left-wing candidates – as announced by the various NFP leaders – the three-way challenges would be reduced to 159. In this scenario, the far-right bloc may not obtain an absolute majority, with a gap of around 15 seats.
Marc Lazar: “Even the new pact might not prevent a Bardella-led government”
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
01 July 2024
Voter turnout yesterday was historic: 66.7%, equal to 32,911,132 voters, well above the 47.51% recorded in 2022. Young people also showed strong participation: according to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll, 41 percent of French voters aged 18 to 24 voted left, for the Nouveau Front Populaire, 23% go to the RN and its allies. 13% of young voters remained loyal to Emmanuel Macron and voted for Ensemble pour la République, while 8% opted for the Republicans. Essentially identical data for the slightly higher age group, from 25 to 34 years, as the survey explains. In 2017 the results were very different. According to Ipsos and Sopra Steria, the newly elected President of the Republic Macron and his party La République En Marche had attracted 32% of young people between 18 and 24 years old.
