That it would not be an election like the others, in Liguria before in Europe, it was already clear at dawn yesterday in little Ameglia, while the regional president Giovanni Toti he was voting escorted by the Financial Police, on leave for the time of voting from house arrest where he has been for a month. Another political move by the suspended governor, which could be among his last.
The first fact of the vote that shifts Europe to the right, in line with the gloomiest forecasts and the downward percentages of yesterday’s findings (25 percent at 12pm, 43 at 7pm), is that even in Liguria hit by the earthquake judicial scandal abstentionism risked becoming the leading party. If the participation numbers were decreasing – on the occasion of the 2019 European elections, 54.5 of those entitled to vote in the country and 58 in Liguria – what will occupy the post-election programs and energy of the parties will not however be the issue of turnout, rather the new balance of power on the scene that the results of the count have already revealed from the first exit polls last night.
At the national level, where FdI wins and sees the 2022 Policies data grow, and the PD confirms itself as the first opposition force, as in the regional territory. Where the Dems are growing in particular in Genoa (in the middle of the sections examined, 31 percent Pd on 21 of Fdi, 13 of the M5s and 9 of Avs), they return to being the first party in Liguria (with counting still in progress, 28 to 24, a sort of reversal of the national figure), and where possible answers were expected also in view of the future of the structures in the Liguria Region, and Toti’s destiny will take shape from today onwards.
While awaiting the start of the counting of the votes of the 125 Ligurian municipalities of the administrative session, today, primarily that of the centre-right strongholds Sanremo and Rapallo, with the majority at stake with the European vote there was also an important slice of the future of the governor suspended. In fact, with the request for the revocation of house arrest frozen and the rejection of the motion of no confidence presented in the Regional Council having been granted, the stability of the centre-right government could act as a guarantee for the line held in Liguria only in part.
The affirmation between 25 and 28 percent of FdI, which confirms itself as the leading party in the country and the leading force of the centre-right in the regional territory – with the League overtaken by Forza Italia – could lead Melonian leaders to look with greater confidence at the hypothesis of a closer end to the Toti era. A year and a half after the elections, Meloni’s party is also strong in Liguria, and continues to be the coldest force on the future of the governor among those in the majority: possible and early lessons, net of the risk of going to the polls after a judicial scandal, would make it possible to cash in even within the center-right in fact at the best moment.
If at the center the electoral numbers which will only be made official this morning could act as a definitive watershed in the political routes of Action and Italia Viva (the Renzians running with the United States of Europe list, both hovering around the threshold), on the left, however, the European results will be the starting point for the progressive discussion on the choices to come. The exploit of the Democratic Party, where the 20 percent threshold was feared and instead will go well beyond (already in the first voting trends, the range was between 21 and 25: the local average higher than that of the country), and Ligurian numbers are also expected to be better than the national ones, it will allow the Dems to lead the games at the table of possible early elections.
The M5s, never lucky with European consultations, also penalized in the regional context by the surprising growth of the Green and Left Alliance and the rush of other pacifist acronyms, already in the first vote projections of the night it seemed that it would not be possible to go beyond 11, 12 percent. He thus sees the majority ally of the future hypothetical progressive Ligurian coalition moving away, and it is likely that he will have more difficulty in imposing a name to run the possible anticipated challenge to the Regionals.
