The death in a helicopter crash of the Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, whose funeral rites began this morning in Tabriz, has set in motion a leadership transition that will lead to a new president in less than a couple of months, but – according to analysts – will not bring about substantial changes to the direction taken in recent years by the Islamic Republic.
According to official Iranian media, Raisi, believed to be more of an executor of Khamenei’s edicts rather than an independent actor, died due to a technical problem. But if there are doubts about the president’s death, these are due to the moment in which it occurred: just over a month after a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel and in the midst of the war in Gaza which resulted in a spiral of violence that it hit the southern border of Lebanon, the Red Sea, Syria and Iraq.
The Last month’s tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran raised fears of a full-scale conflict breaking out across the Middle East.. Between the two regional rivals, “the old rules of the game have broken down. And the new rules are not fully established,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, during a round table in Qatar. Raisi’s death added “uncertainty to the ambiguity that existed between Iran and Israel, which increases the risk of calculation errors – he added – the fear is that Iran’s adversaries in the region may see an opportunity and overcome the limits”.
This concern – that Israel or others could use Raisi’s death as an opportunity to orchestrate attacks against Iran – could lead to a “sense of vulnerability” in the country, argued Hamidreza Azizi, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Whatever the domestic consequences of the incident, in any case there are few signs that Iran’s regional position – its rivalry with Israel, its focus on improving relations with Arab neighbors – will change. These policies are established by the Supreme Leader and carried out by the Guardians of the Revolution. The role of the executive has been “reduced to implementer, to executor of state decisions”, concluded Azizi, adding that “there will be a period of ambiguity until the next president is known”.
