FI takes the discontented on the right, the Democratic Party does not dismember itself and the socialists… Diamanti speaks

05/08/2024

To the secretary of the Democratic Party Elly Schlein, as well as on merit, the comments made against her are methodological. The choice to join the CGIL referendum for the abolition of Renzian’s Jobs Act comes at a complex moment. But be careful about leaving the dems for dead. The Democratic Party remains “a party with a solid electorate” and, therefore, it is too early for the center-right to think of catalyzing the votes of likely outgoing reformists. Although it is undeniable, as a Formiche.net the political scientist and founder of YouTrend, Giovanni Diamantithe reformist area “is uncomfortable”.

Schlein’s choice to join the CGIL referendum is causing quite a bit of controversy within the party. Is there a risk of a dismemberment ahead of the European Championships?

I have heard many times about the dismemberment of the Democratic Party, when in fact it is the only party that remains stable. With few oscillations. A party that has a sort of membership vote. Honestly, it seems to me not only premature but wrong to write him off as dead or divided. It is plural and this is also one of its strengths, although sometimes its weakness. The Democratic Party electorate knows its party. Its limits and its potential. Schlein’s exit makes reformists uncomfortable, but it is a historic position of the secretary. Of course, the timing isn’t the best.

Will this stance guarantee the Democratic Party to recover a slice – on the left – of the electorate or is it a move that does not move?

I don’t know if this move moves. I consider the Democratic Party to be a fairly solid and stable party. This is the basis on which the secretary works. I expect there to be a return of some left-wing voters to the Democratic Party, who had taken refuge in not voting. However, I don’t expect any major significant changes. Furthermore, I don’t know how many votes he will be able to lose in the centre, realistically.

In the centre-right Meloni plays the protagonist, while Forza Italia (together with Renzi) tries to intercept dissatisfied dems. Salvini’s League is increasingly isolated. Who “gains” in this race towards the electoral deadline?

Everyone plays their game. It seems normal and physiological to me. FI aims not at the discontented Dems but at the discontented people of the other centre-right parties, positioning itself as the stable and reassuring force of a coalition that has shifted its center of gravity far to the right. He is running a strong and credible electoral campaign, with an excellent job on the list-building front. The league is increasingly to the right, this is also a gamble.

And isn’t there a very high risk of characterizing itself increasingly to the right?

We’ll see if it pays off on voting day. In my opinion, in this way the Northern League limits the potential electorate but perhaps strengthens voting intentions in the very short term.

The theme of alliances after the results of the polls, especially in the center-right, is central. What epilogue do you foresee, given that it is reasonable to imagine a majority characterized by the primacy of the EPP?

The PSE life insurance is the government of Germany and Spain. The EPP cannot afford to look at a majority that is too unbalanced to the right, which does not include the party that governs these two countries. Likewise, the Renew group governing France has a specific weight that goes beyond simple numbers. These are issues that should not be overlooked. Europe is not governed only by numbers but by weight.

But the numbers matter.

Certain. But, even numerically speaking – although probably for a short time – I don’t think there will be the possibility of a European right-wing government. However, the classical majority could be very small and could be further enlarged.