All parties are growing, except FdI: the M5s and the Pd are performing well, the Lega and FI are less so. The race is also on to overcome the 4% threshold in the European elections and gain seats in Strasbourg: here’s how it’s going, according to the new political survey by Swg.
Week of stalemate for the Brothers of Italy, and the others take advantage of it: the Democratic Party rises in consensus and so does the 5 Star Movement. The League and Forza Italia, with less significant results, remain practically neck and neck. Meanwhile, at least three parties are fighting to overcome the 4% threshold, which would allow them to elect their representatives to the European Parliament in the European elections on 8 and 9 June. Here is the picture of the competition, just over a month before the elections, according to the new electoral survey carried out by Swg for La7.
Brothers of stable Italy, the League is growing but the number of MEPs will collapse
Brothers of Italy it is at 26.6% and remains stable compared to last week. In the current situation, FdI would elect 21 people to the European Parliament, compared to the 10 seats it has today. It is a result that Giorgia Meloni can be satisfied with: not only is it the first party in the country, but it is also in line with the objective declared by the Prime Minister, that is, to confirm the result of the 2022 political elections (i.e. 26%) . On the other hand, for the moment, the opposition rivals remain quite distant.
There League it rises to 8.8% with a gain of 0.2%, and just below Forza Italia with We moderates it goes to 8.5% with a +0.1%. The two parties are practically side by side in this survey, while others give the Northern League ahead and still others assign an advantage to FI. It will be the European vote that will establish the balance of power within the majority, which in recent years has always seen the League ahead of the Forza Italia supporters but could be reversed. Today, the League would elect 7 MEPs and Forza Italia 6, while FI currently has 10 in the European Parliament and the League has 22.
Political polls, Brothers of Italy is declining and the Democratic Party is gaining ground: who wins the European elections
Pd and M5s do well, whoever saves above 4%
The Democratic party it rises to 20.6% and grows by 0.3% compared to the last survey. It is a result in line with those obtained by the Dems in the polls of recent months, which would allow Elly Schlein’s Dems to maintain their 16 European seats. The second opposition force, the 5 Star Movement, rises to 16.1% with a jump of 0.5% in a week. Also in this case, this is a rather consolidated figure for Conte’s M5s: it would be worth 13 seats, while today it has 8.
The area that could become more contested is that of the parties trying to reach 4% and bring their representatives to Strasbourg. Also because two of them are in direct competition in the centrist camp. On the one hand there are the United States of Europe with 4.9%: the list of Emma Bonino and Matteo Renzi gains 0.4%. On the other Action by Carlo Calenda, at 4.5% and with a +0.3%. In the end, Greens-Left Alliance it stands at 4.6%, with a +0.1%. Right now they are all above the threshold, but it remains to be seen what will happen in the coming weeks. With the current results, they would all get 4 seats each.
Finally, there are the lists that at this moment would not be able to elect their candidates, those that are detected in the survey but reach below 4%. These are Libertà by Cateno De Luca, at 2.3% (+0.2%) and Pace Terra Dignità by Michele Santoro with 1.8% (-0.2%).
