THE Israeli bombings on Rafah, the largest since the beginning of the Gaza war, are proof that between Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden Bibi is leading the game. His reputation weakened and a significant portion of the consensus gained among Western public opinion after the October 7 massacres lost, astrategic in his determination to wage an all-out war but still capable of dealing the cards to the White House. Netanyahu makes waste of Hamas’s, indeed belated, acceptance of some form of ceasefire and bombs Rafah, a city in the south of the Gaza Strip which is a keystone for connections between the besieged land and Egypt, and therefore towards the rest of the world, in what if it is not the beginning of the final offensive (in Israel’s hopes) it’s at least the end of the initial waiting phase. And he does so on the day when Biden, calling him, expressed “concern” for the umpteenth time.
These are the same pressures that we remember being exerted last February 11, when word began to circulate in Rafah that Biden was running out of patience. Then Netanyahu said he was in favor of evacuating Rafah, triggering the biblical exodus of a million Gazans towards Egypt to launch his offensive. The invitation was reiterated on February 16 and March 18. Known plot: Biden communicated “concern”, invited Netanyahu to reason, proposed establishing red lines towards his ally. Netanyahu reassured the hawks in his government: no relenting in the race for victory. There followed days of Israeli silence aimed at making concerns disappear. And off we go with another round of the carousel. April was occupied by the Israel-Iran standoff as the war in Gaza continued. And perhaps in its contradictory nature, the month which clearly confirmed that it is Netanyahu who needs the USA and the West, as the response to the Iranian raids with drones and missiles has demonstrated, rather than the opposite, has produced a context in which a No conditions have been set by friendly chancelleries in Tel Aviv that would open up a non-disastrous solution to the conflict. Lastly, today Biden called Netanyahu. Which he responded by opening fire in Rafah in what seems like the most classic of preparations for the potential opening of a new land front.
Here, it is not a question of distributing blame or responsibility for the war but of making a cold strategic reasoning about collective security. The ground offensive on Rafah is the non plus ultraNetanyahu’s Chaos Plan: advancing towards the crossing dismantles the Gaza Strip as we know it and risks opening not only a reverse mosaic exodus of Palestinians across the Sinai but also the general destabilization of the regional political and diplomatic fabric. Furthermore, giving a political assist to Hamas, which benefits from Israel’s weakening. Biden knows all this. But the political pressure not to want to abandon Israel appears stronger than any political consideration. Every red line requested by the US appears to be the basis with which Netanyahu aims to put pressure to negotiate a push to support new goals. And so, paradoxically, the US finds itself unable to abandon the operation of its closest Middle Eastern ally precisely when it would have the greatest negotiating leverage against it. Last but not least, the prospect of a maxi-agreement between Washington, Tel Aviv and Saudi Arabia which would strengthen the positions of all three actors in a chaotic area.
“Biden remains determined to reject global calls for an immediate halt to Israel’s military assault on a starving and largely defenseless population. Not only has Biden categorically rejected the proposal to use the threat to stop arms sales to Israel,” he noted in February The Interceptadding that the White House had painted itself into a corner with compromising and disastrous statements: “a military operation should not proceed without a credible and executable plan to ensure the safety and support of civilians in Rafah.” Words in the wind that do not take into account the possible military and humanitarian disaster. Added to which is the increase in the flow of weapons to Israel, considered an irreplaceable policeman capable of being a deterrent against Iran, its allies and other actors considered adversaries by Washington, which does not want to give up its true presence in a Middle East from which it is impossible to disengage. The Nation he recalled that Biden is well aware of the “three nos” with which Netanyahu addresses the Gaza crisis: “no solution based on two states, no state of Palestine and, most likely, not even Palestinians in their historic lands”. But nevertheless he does not intervene at the root of the problem. That is, leveraging his political weight to make people understand the need to do not bring to the end a war in which the military objectives now appear secondary and in the name of which Netanyahu justifies his stay in power. Netanyahu speaks, reassures Biden, then does the opposite: and off red line after red line. Biden made it known in January that he was “losing patience” with Netanyahu. Nearly four months later, Bibi is ready to step on even the most obvious red line asked of him. Perhaps because he knows that in Washington it will be difficult, due to historical experience, to do without Israel. Especially if America is increasingly uncertain about understanding what it really wants for the global order.
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