The real estate market in Italy is currently in brakingnever prices from the houses remain tall. Framework which, at least apparently, disavows the fundamental rule of economics according to which prices are determined by demand. Until now, those who were thinking of buying a house have been dissuaded by the authorities high interest rates of the mortgages.
The state of the real estate market in Italy
The framework outlined byIstat tells of a fourth quarter of 2023 in which thehouse price index has essentially remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2022, however, there was an increase of +1.8%. Prices were driven upwards above all by newly built properties, which recorded +8.9%. A significant acceleration, if we consider that only in the previous quarter it had reached +7.9%.
As regards the residential market, we are talking about almost 710,000 homes sold in 2023 (-10% compared to 2022). Buyers resorted to a mutual in less than 40% of cases. Regarding mortgages, the situation is not exclusively attributable to the real estate market, but also to the general economic picture which is immediately reflected on the family economy. Framework that has pushed large banks to provide fewer mortgages. And the market shares left free by the big ones were soon occupied by medium and small banks, which on the contrary increased the provision of financing.
Anthony IntiniThe chief business officer Of Immobiliare.it quoted by Sun 24 Hours, explains the calm of the brick: “The recent block of operations occurred because people were at the window waiting for rates to drop, but many practices were ready to be activated. It must be underlined that rates have meanwhile fallen from the highs reached above 5% and have gradually decreased towards 3.5 percent”.
Real estate market, forecasts until 2026
Also from Immobiliare.it come the price forecasts for the real estate market for the current two-year period. In 2023 the nominal increase in housing was +1.5%, a figure which, taking inflation into account, rises to +3.9%. For the current year, 2025 and 2026 are expected to see linear growth of +1.4% in nominal terms in each year. Net of inflation, the increase should be equal to:
- +0.5% in 2024;
- +0.8% in 2025;
- +0.5% in 2026.
The crux of the issue, it is highlighted, does not concern the price situation which varies from city to city and from area to area. The real estate market seems rather to be affected by the constraints that slow down the credit market. The crux, in short, is the tightening of mortgages by banks. To normalize the real estate market, the mortgage market must first be normalized.
Real estate sales in Italy
Below is the trend of real estate sales in the eight largest Italian cities by population. The negative annual trend variation was -5.7%, slightly higher than the national figure. In total, in the cities considered, there were approximately 1,800 fewer homes purchased in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year. This is the situation:
- Rome = -11%;
- Florence = -8%;
- Bologna = -5.7%;
- Turin = -3.2%;
- Naples = -2.7%;
- Milan = -2.3%;
- Palermo = -1.6%.
