Why read this article? Israel – Hamas conflict and the hostage unknown. True-News.it interviewed ambassador Marco Carnelos: “It is not known how many hostages are still alive. In this context, a macabre and cynical convergence of interests emerges between Hamas and Netanyahu. Even the Israeli Prime Minister is trying to buy time in the awareness that the longer the conflict prolongs, the further away the showdown that awaits him becomes.” The interview.
Seven months have passed since the beginning of the conflict between Hamas and Israel and there does not seem to be, at least for the moment, the possibility of an agreement between the two parties. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, visiting Israel, urges Hamas to surrender and tries to secure a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. True-News.it interviewed the ambassador Marco Carnelosformer diplomat in Iraq, on the ongoing conflict and the requests for the release of the hostages. This request, however, may not be accepted also due to the death of most of the hostages in Hamas hands.
Carnelos: “After 7 months of conflict Israel cannot afford for Hamas to survive”
Could ending the war now be a major defeat for Israel? “Without a doubt!”, states Marco Carnelos with certainty. “After 7 months of conflict, a huge number of losses, mostly civilians unfortunately, and an almost systematic destruction of the entire Gaza Strip, Israel cannot afford for Hamas to survive”. The reasons are obvious. In fact, Hamas, sooner or later, “will reorganize and strike again if there is no real political turning point”.
On the other hand, the very “notion of destruction of Hamas” according to the ambassador “appears far-fetched because the organization still enjoys widespread support both in Gaza and in the West Bank. But also in Arab countries, especially Egypt and Jordan.” And this is precisely the dilemma that Israel finds itself experiencing now. “It cannot eradicate Hamas, but if it does not eradicate Hamas it will face a crushing defeat”.
Hamas – Israel war. The danger of the opening of the Lebanese front
The news of the last few days seemed to lead to a turning point in the conflict. “Then came Netanyahu’s sudden statement that Israel would invade Rafah with or without an agreement to free the hostages.”, added Carnelos. Precisely for this reason Hamas would have had no advantage in signing the agreement. “In fact, Hamas did not accept the latest proposal. So the prospects of an agreement have receded again.”
The situation could be different if we are talking about the expansion of the conflict on a global scale. “The United States, however,” continues the diplomat, “have worked and are working hard to avoid it.” Something could change if the current situation in Gaza turns out to be a permanent stalemate. In such a case “Netanyahu could be tempted to open the Lebanese front and then the entity and dimension of the conflict would undergo a clear leap in quality to which our country, which has a significant contingent in southern Lebanon, could not remain aloof”. Prime Minister Meloni’s recent visit to Lebanon is correct according to Carnelos. “But the Italian Government should launch its own initiative to avert the risk of the conflict widening.” “Rome cannot leave the management of a delicate dossier like the Lebanese one to Paris,” he declared.
Carnelos: “Israeli operation on Rafah unfeasible”
Thanks to the American push, however, it seems that Israel is starting to consider the option of slowing down the attack to focus on the return of the hostages. “The Americans have been putting pressure on Israel for months but so far, unfortunately, few concrete facts have been seen,” the ambassador said. “The Biden Administration itself has no principled opposition to the Israeli military operation on Rafah allegedly aimed at the complete destruction of Hamas which, in my humble opinion, is unachievable.”
Regarding this operation, Carnelos has clear ideas. “Under current conditions such an operation would be yet another massacre because at the moment there are no credible options to relocate the million people who have gathered in Rafah,” he revealed. “Finally, let’s not forget that The Israeli hostages remain the last card in the hands of Hamas and the latter wants to play well”.
The unknown of the Hamas hostages
However, with reference to the hostages, the situation is unclear. And there may be no more hostages to return. “The goal is difficult to reach, a political solution is needed but at the moment there is no talk of it. The only hypothesis mooted is to bring the Palestinian National Authority back to Gaza, but it is not at all clear whether this could be practicable. Above all, there is fear that it could turn out to be a boomerang because a large part of the Palestinian population in Gaza considers the PA as excessively colluding with Israel,” adds Carnelos.
The data we have on the hostages are not very comforting. “Intelligence estimates indicate that two-thirds of the hostages that Hamas officially still holds may be dead and it is not even clear whether those who remain are all in Hamas hands.”. It is therefore clear why Hamas is trying to prevaricate and stall for time. “In this context, a macabre and cynical convergence of interests with Netanyahu emerges, even the Israeli Prime Minister is trying to buy time in the awareness that the longer the conflict prolongs, the further away the reckoning awaits him”. Wrong choices by the Prime Minister. “There is no strategy in Netanyahu’s choices, just a mere delaying tactic”, said the diplomat.
Netanyahu’s deposition could “be of little use”
Marco Carnelos also does not think that a hypothetical deposition of Netanyahu could change the outcome of the conflict. “Netanyahu appears isolated, but what he thinks is also shared by those apparently destined to replace him,” he declared. “The positions of Menachem Gantz, the main candidate for succession, on the Palestinian issue do not differ much from those of Netanyahu and, even more disturbingly, they are still shared by the majority of Israeli public opinion.”
Removing the Prime Minister from his role would therefore not be very useful. “Deposing Netanyahu, I fear, will do little, except, perhaps, for Biden to recover some votes in view of the presidential elections in November”, concluded Carnelos.
