A turning point could now be really close. The signs of a possible convergence on the part of Israel and Hamas towards a truce in Gaza are increasingly evident. Israel, in a proposed ceasefire agreement worked together with Egypt, has significantly reduced its requests compared to the past few days: now it seems to want to settle for the release of 33 hostages still imprisoned in the Strip. Hamas, at the same time, speaks of the proposal received from Egypt, which it is still examining, as the “best presented to the militia in recent months, as it includes concessions from parts of Israel on several points”. Even the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, usually critical of the Israeli government, claims that “both sides are showing considerable flexibility.”
Saudi triangulation. Israel relaxes its demands, Blinken to Hamas: “Decide quickly, the truce depends on you”
by Nadia Boffa
In the next 48-72 hours the fate of the war between Israel and Hamas will be decided: either the operation in Rafah, or a truce in the Gaza Strip. Yesterday, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved the final plans for military action in Rafah and refugee camps in the center of the Gaza Strip. According to the Ynet news site, and Haaretz, Israeli tanks are deployed on the Gaza border and ready to receive the green light to begin the controversial offensive. An army radio station announces that without a ceasefire agreement the military offensive on Rafah will begin “in the next few days”. But we are still waiting, because, in fact, in the next few hours, progress could come from the negotiations for the truce .
The proposal that Israel helped to develop is divided into two phases: the first involves the release of a number of hostages ranging from 20 to 33 over several weeks, in exchange for a truce from the fighting and the release of Palestinian prisoners . The second phase is what negotiating sources describe as the “restoration of sustainable calm,” during which the remaining hostages, captive Israeli soldiers and hostage bodies would be exchanged for other Palestinian prisoners. A diplomatic source familiar with the talks told CNN that the reference to sustainable calm is “a way of agreeing to a permanent ceasefire without calling it one.” According to several Hebrew-language media outlets, which spoke to a senior Israeli diplomatic official, Israel expects Hamas to respond to its proposed deal tomorrow evening. At that point, if the response is positive, Israel will send a high-level delegation to the talks in Egypt.
The US is racing against time to prevent the Rafah operation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after yesterday’s visit to Saudi Arabia, is today in Jordan to discuss how to increase humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, the government of the Strip once the war is over and to strengthen the defense project integrated with Israel and other Arab countries. Tonight and tomorrow Blinken will be in Israel to try once again to apply pressure so that the operation does not begin in the south of the Strip. The top US diplomat, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, will also visit the Israeli kibbutzim where the hostages were kidnapped by Hamas. Last night US President Joe Biden held telephone talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al Sisi and the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to “push” them to exert further pressure on Hamas to accept the proposed agreement. According to the White House, “progress” has been made to reach an agreement and now “it is up to Hamas to accept the hostage agreement and it must do so”.
Washington is also increasing pressure so that the International Criminal Court does not issue an arrest warrant in the next few hours against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Herzi Halevi. The fear is that a possible decision in that sense could lead Israel to withdraw from the talks. “The United States does not support an International Criminal Court investigation into the conflict in Gaza,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said last night. “We believe that the Court does not have jurisdiction in the matter,” added Jean-Pierre.
Netanyahu, in the most complex hour, remains silent. As Amos Harel writes in Haaretz, the Israeli prime minister “is now ready to consider ideas that he totally rejected three months ago.” Netanyahu continues to have reservations about a deal under current conditions, but he is in a clear minority in his war cabinet, with other members preferring to prioritize an agreement at the expense of the Rafah invasion.
The IDF also shows its lack of enthusiasm for the operation in the south. Haaretz reports that dozens of reservists are rebelling against their commanders, stressing that they do not intend to report for duty if they were to be called into the operation in Rafah. On Channel 12, Major General Israel Ziv, the commentator closest to the positions of the Army General Staff, repeats every day that “any agreement for the release of the hostages takes precedence over a military operation in Rafah”, and that “it would be positive if the offensive does not take place at all”. “Netanyahu is getting lost along the way and does not see the abyss into which he and Israel could soon fall” claims the General.
Netanyahu’s fear: an international arrest warrant. Hamas evaluates Egypt’s plan
by Nadia Boffa
