There Born could be involved in a hypothetical conflict a Taiwan should the fighting resulting from that war somehow reach American territory in Pacific. This is the scenario put in black and white by a report by the NATO Defense College and entitled Born and in Taiwan contingency. Of course, the source coincides with an academic paper and does not reflect a formal position of the Atlantic Alliance. Yet it cannot be ruled out that such a hypothesis could serve as a reference in a possible one strategic planning of the block.
The red thread that connects NATO to Taiwan
The report was written by James Lee, a research assistant at the Institute for European and American StudiesAcademia Sinica of Taiwan. The question the paper tries to answer is the following: an armed attack by China against the island would trigger thearticle 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, i.e. the article according to which an attack against a member of NATO is considered an attack against all its members?
There are two answers based on as many contexts to consider. “If hostilities are limited to the immediate vicinity of Taiwan or the First Island Chain, then Article 5 is unlikely to be triggered“, the document reads.
But be careful second case taken into consideration: the risk that a phantom conflict could escalate to the point of pushing China to attack the American military facilities located at Hawaii oh Guam. It has been repeatedly underlined that the two territories do not fall within NATO’s collective defense obligations, given that thearticle 6 of the Treaty limits the application of the aforementioned defense to the territory of “Member countries in Europe or North America or in the islands under the jurisdiction of any of the parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer“. But the risk of a Domino effect should not be ignored.
The worst case scenario
The document suggests that Article 5 could be invoked, depending on how Hawaii is defined, but that even then “the scope of action on the part of the Allies would be relatively limited“. At the same time, as mentioned, there is the risk of possible involvement of the Atlantic Alliance. If not directly, then in a indirect form aimed at cooperating with the USA. Washington could, for example, ask NATO allies to impose sanctions against China, or to members of the alliance operating in theIndo-Pacific – such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada – to support American operations.
All this – a China-US/NATO clash – would increase the risk of “a window of vulnerability in Europe“. The reason is simple: if the United States concentrated resources in the Indo-Pacific, Europe would remain exposed to possible enemy attacks. This is why the paper suggests creating an emergency plan for Taiwan referring to the Old Continent.
On the other hand, some analysts believe that a confrontation involving Chinese attacks on Hawaii would eventually result in an American response, which in turn would trigger a full-scale battle between the two countries.
Therefore, NATO would inevitably be involved in the fight if the Dragon attacked the US on continental territory.
