The risk of forest fires increases due to climate change

Forecasts show that the danger potential will increase continuously, but from 2040 it will exceed the range of natural fluctuation of the climate and from this point on it will be attributable to climate change. Taking the Bavarian Prealps as an example, this means that the meteorological risk of forest fires will increase more rapidly from 2040 and reach the “high” level by the end of the 21st century, compared to the current “low” level (Fig. 1) . The meteorological conditions that can trigger forest fires, which today only occur every sixty years, will occur on average every ten years in 2090 (fig. 2). The projections also show that weather conditions favorable for forest fires will occur earlier in the year than today, i.e. as early as May. Currently, the season often starts in June. Already dry vegetation also contributes to fires starting more easily and getting out of control more quickly. “Even in regions with a temperate climate, it will therefore be necessary to prepare for forest fires in the future,” says Miller. They range from water tanks for firefighting helicopters to warning signs to raise awareness among the local population of the danger.