Nothing changes, but everything changes.
The large Turkish cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir – were and remain in the hands of the moderate secular opposition of the CHP, which largely took them in 2019.
But Recep Tayyip Erdoğan he had spent all his charisma to win them back and instead he was soundly defeated. Furthermore, the CHP becomes the leading political force. THEThe signal from yesterday’s administrative vote in Turkey is an unequivocal setback for the president, who in about twenty years in power has dominated and transformed the country as he pleases, without scruples about repressing dissent as and where he could .
TO Istanbulthe metropolis which alone has a fifth of the Turkish population, the man who aspires to challenge triumphs Erdoğan for the presidency, in the 2028 vote that suddenly appears closer: it is Ekrem İmamoğlu, 54 years old, mild and pragmatic approach – long time star of the opposition, to the point that the president has tried to cripple him with judicial investigations defined by many as specious, based on crimes of opinion. Unlike 5 years ago, the CHP wins in most of the districts of the metropolis on the Bosphorus, reconquering even the very central one after 30 years Beyoğlu.
Things are even worse for the president Ankarawhere the outgoing mayor Mansur Yavaş not only does it replicate the success of 2019 but it takes away the challenge of beating its rival with a gap of around 26 points.
It is not surprising to Smyrna the victory of the CHP, which has dominated the country’s third largest city for decades, as happens in important centers such as Adana And Mersin. However, it is surprising in cities like Bursa, another large industrial center hitherto considered a fiefdom of Erdoğan’s AKP. The president remains in the hands of the main centers of the Black Sea coast and a large part of central Anatolia. But here too there are provinces that are changing direction, the advance of ultra-nationalist and religious parties.
More generally, we can hear messages of disquiet and detachment from social groups that have until now been united in their support for Erdoğan: the president has always appealed to the traditionalist electorate, to the poorer classes who have long been kept on the margins of political and economic life, who now they seem to be wary.
In the Southeast with a Kurdish majority The DEM party wins almost everywhere, an acronym that collects the legacy of the ethnic-based HDP party – whose leaders were largely arrested some time ago on not always convincing accusations of contiguity with the armed separatist movement of the PKK. But here too the impression is that the geography of the electorate is changing, that the old balances are no longer recognisable.
Erdoğan changed Turkey, now it is Turkey that changes – and makes the ground shake under his feet.
“A historic achievement,” exults the CHP leader Özgür Özel: “Today the voters decided to change the face of Turkey and open the doors to a new political climate.”
But he is actually the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu to make it clear that this vote, if it changes little in the administrative structure of the cities, is a political signal that cannot be ignored. When he addresses an enthusiastic crowd of supporters who have come to celebrate him while the count is still underway, the most significant phrase looks ahead, to the challenges of tomorrow: “The doors of the future have opened”, she says.
Also Erdoğan he speaks to his voters when the results are not yet definitive, he too understands that something is changing. And he equips himself to face the danger.
He publicly admits defeat and announces self-criticism: “Today 85 million Turks won, the result must be a turning point for our party.” And again: “We didn’t get the result we expected, it’s time to analyze and act with courage. In the last 22 years there have been 18 elections and we have almost always won – this time it didn’t go that way, but anything can happen in the future.”
