Montemerano (Grosseto). Easter 2024 is marked by the winds of war that intensify and overlap. Two increasingly dramatic open fronts, Ukraine and the Middle East, a diplomatic stalemate and the uncertainty of Western countries are increasing concerns about a possible military escalation.
The Accademia del Libro talks about it with ambassador Maurizio Melani, professor of international relations, in a meeting entitled “War and Peace – In World Disorder“, scheduled for Saturday 30 March at 6pm at the Montemerano art history library.
The meeting
The attack in Moscow on March 15, which reminds us so much of the Bataclan, was claimed by ISIS, but Putin is attributing it to Kiev. What consequences could it have on the outcome of the war? “Faced with the defeat suffered, Putin is trying to shift the blame onto Ukraine, thus motivating the extension of military commitment in the attacked country, intensifying bombings and actions on the ground. This increases the risk of the conflict spreading.”he declares Melani.
And in what direction will European countries move? “Russia’s aggressiveness and the prospects of American disengagement from the defense of Europe, especially if Trump were elected, present the European Union with the need to equip itself with its own capacity for dissuasion and crisis management – explains Melani –. The recent European Council reiterated this, but stopped on the crucial question of resources, and therefore of a more substantial common budget, in a sharing of sovereignty. Several countries, in particular Germany, are not yet ready for this step. Furthermore, there is the question of common defense, which first requires a common foreign policy.”
The war between Israel and Hamas It seems like there’s no way out... “The current government of Israel does not seem capable of managing the reaction to the horrors of October 7, in order to avoid an isolation that is worrying for its security, in the short and long term – continues Melani -. The Arab countries of the region want to coexist and collaborate with Israel after overcoming a long refusal, however placing the condition of concrete steps towards the establishment of the Palestinian state according to the ‘two peoples, two states’ principle. Iran and its allies, however, intend to break this process. Russia, which in the past recognized the principle of ‘two peoples, two states’, today shows itself aligned with Iran for the common interests in Syria and for their common posture in this phase of contrast to the West”.
In this complex picture, pacifism seems to have lost all strength. “A pacifism that advocates unilateral disarmament certainly does not facilitate peace – claims Melani -. An effort aimed at promoting dialogue alongside deterrence, respect for international law and a negotiated, balanced and controlled reduction of arms does. A popular mobilization in this sense can impact the actions of governments. But the message must be the right one.”
