The Silver Arrows’ plans
When Lewis Hamilton had communicated to the Mercedes his decision to join Ferrari for 2025, the team principal Toto Wolff – although disappointed – he had displayed a certain calm, explaining that he was in no hurry in choosing the replacement for the English champion with whom he won 8 consecutive constructors’ titles. The Austrian manager was far-sighted, because few would have thought last February that Mercedes could toy with the idea of bringing Max Verstappen into the teamtied to Red Bull until 2028.
The performances of the W15, disappointing across the board in the first part of the season, have however made the Dutchman’s arrival at the Silver Arrows increasingly unlikely as early as 2025. Red Bull is still the car to beat, as demonstrated by the leadership in both world championships, and nothing suggests a radical change in the forces on the field in the next season – the last with the current regulatory cycle. In short: unless cataclysms seem to be on the horizon, Verstappen intends to stay in Red Bull because he would have a better chance of winning the next championship. Despite the disagreements created by the Horner case.
But the court against Max continues
But it is a fact that the management of Verstappen, Helmut Marko and Toto Wolff have become closer again, after years of frost. “Toto has been very nice lately and says a lot of nice things about me!”, Max joked a few weeks ago. Of course Wolff has not set aside the Verstappen idea for 2026, when he will be able to put much more convincing arguments on the table than the current ones. In the paddock and among rival teams it is common opinion that the Mercedes power unit for the next regulatory cycle – when the power will be split 50% between the internal combustion engine and the hybrid – it might be the best of the lot. Or at least it is the most advanced in the current state of affairs.
And Wolff himself at Imola had let it be understood between the lines: “I can’t wait for 2026 to discover the performance levels of the different power units”. And, despite still having a long contract with Red Bull, Verstappen has often repeated in recent weeks: “My future is here, right now“. In short, the wedding seems to have only been postponed for a year: Mercedes wants Verstappen and for Verstappen, Mercedes could be the best positioning for 2026. How to break the contract early? There is the Marko clause, which ties the permanence of the Austrian consultant to the driver. If Marko decides to leave Red Bull, Verstappen would have one year to take advantage of the exit option of his deal.
And in 2025?
The road seems clear, Andrea Kimi Antonelli is the super favorite for a starting seat in Mercedes for 2025. The tests on the old F1s impressed the technicians, as told in Imola by James Allison, who spoke about “metronome rhythm“: “Until recently he had never been in a Formula 1 car, but after a lap or two he gave the impression he had always been doing so. He pointed out strengths and weaknesses and then let the engineers do their job to improve the car. He is a very promising young driver“. Toto Wolff he then followed, flirting with the Italian fans: “For them to have Lewis Hamilton in Ferrari next year I imagine will be really exciting. But we have to look at ourselves and perhaps there is an option to shine even more with an Italian at the wheel”.
There is a lot of anticipation around Antonelli, who will turn 18 in August, who also received the ‘blessing’ from Hamilton: “In my place I would take him”. The Italian will continue his F2 world championship, alongside the Formula 1 tests planned by Mercedes and if there are no problems he will be the one to team up with George Russell in 2025. Antonelli could thus dedicate himself to a year of apprenticeship on the track, without particular urgency of results, in view of a 2026 which could put Mercedes back in the leading positions.
And watch out for his future position in Russell’s team: the Englishman will conclude his contract at the end of next year and could be forced to look for a steering wheel elsewhere in the event of an Antonelli-Verstappen pairing for 2026.
