ATP Madrid: probable debut for Sinner with Sonego, then Ruud, Medvedev or Tsitsipas

The Madrid Masters 1000 draw takes shape after this morning’s draws: the path that Jannik Sinner he will have to face to reach the final of the prestigious tournament will be full of pitfalls, given that the Italian could find opponents of the caliber of Casper Ruud, Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas on his way. The competition will start from Wednesday 24th April, but we start today, Monday 22nd, with the qualifiers to access the main draw. Matteo Berrettini he has already said goodbye to Madrid due to flu with tonsillitis and fever: the Italian tennis player will probably return to the court in Rome.

Jannik, number one seed after the unexpected withdrawal of the leader of the ATP rankings Novak Djokovic, is obviously at the top of the draw and, given his ranking, will have a bye in the first round. The path towards the coveted final in Madrid could begin with a derby against Lorenzo Sonegoobviously in the event that the Turin player managed to win his debut match against a tennis player from the qualifiers.

In the event of victory against Sonny, with whom he has a 4-0 lead in head-to-head matches, Sinner could presumably meet in the third round Jordan Thompson or Pavel Kotov, who he has never faced on the pitch yet. In the round of 16, however, the Italian tennis player may have to deal with the Russian Karen Khachanovwith whom he is ahead 3-1 in head-to-head matches or with Nicolàs Jarry: only one precedent between the two, which dates back to 2019, when the Chilean tennis player won on the grass of ‘s-Hertogenbosch with the result of two sets to zero.

In the event that he reached the quarter-finals, Jannik would presumably find on his path the Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, over whom he has a 3-1 lead in the h2h, or the Norwegian Casper Ruud, fresh winner of the ATP 500 in Barcelona (2-0 in this case the precedents in favor of the blue tennis player). There are four tennis players most likely to find in the semifinals, that is Daniil Medvedevwho is still ahead 6-5 in head-to-head matches but who has not been able to win against Sinner since the Miami 2023 final, Rafael Nadal (who leads 3-0 in head-to-head matches), Stefanos Tsitsipas (ahead of the Italian by 6-3) and Alex De Minaur, who in 7 matches has never managed to prevail over the Italian.

The issue of the final is complex, given that the decision is not known Carlos Alcaraz, who has not yet resolved his reservations about his participation in the Madrid tournament after the injury that kept him away from the courts. If the Spaniard were at the starting line he would certainly be a possible finalist (4-4 previous matches between the two), but Jannik could also find himself facing one of Alexander Zverev (4-1 for the German in head-to-head matches), Hubert Hurkacz (2-2 h2h) or Andrey Rublev, over whom the Italian leads 5-2.

Djokovic’s absence and Nadal’s sub-optimal condition, as well as the doubts relating to Alcaraz’s participation, leave the field open to various possibilities: the only one to have already triumphed in Madrid, on two occasions, is Sasha Zverev, therefore it is not excluded that there could be a new winner.

Given the speed of the Caja Magica courts, compared to other tournaments played on clay, it could be a wonderful opportunity for Sinner to expand his list of successes with a highly prestigious tournament and to return to triumph on clay for the first time since Umag 2022.