After the blow inflicted by the voters, a hard blow also comes from Giuseppe Conte Bank of Italy: the theme is that of superbonus. According to what emerges from a paper by researchers at Palazzo Koch, 170 billion spent in the period 2021-23 for this type of subsidy (around 3% of GDP on average per year) have not been “pay for themselves“: this means that, unlike the refrain told in recent months by the 5 Star Movement, “the revenue generated by the boost to economic activity induced by the bonuses was significantly lower than their gross cost for the state coffers“, behaving “a further accumulation of public debt which will have to be repaid in the future“.
Superbonus, 45 billion lost
Bankitalia examines the “facade bonus” and the “110% superbonus”, active in Italy since the second half of 2020 – i.e. during the Conte 2 government – which had the objective of stimulating the construction sector through investments aimed at improving the energy efficiency and the anti-seismic and aesthetic characteristics of residential buildings. The researchers compared Italy’s residential investment spending trend with that of some European countries that had not adopted similar programs. According to the study, around a quarter of the expenditure relating to subsidized investments (over 45 billion) would have been carried out even in the absence of the incentives. “This result implies that the fiscal multiplier was less than unityi.e. that the benefits for the economy as a whole in terms of added value were lower than the costs incurred for the benefits“, is underlined.
The incentives represented approximately three quarters of value-added growth in the construction sector but, at the same time, played a role limited role in other sectors. However, it is underlined that the analysis carried out does not allow a complete evaluation of the programme. For example, the possible behavioral responses of businesses and families in a context characterized by rising input prices and long delays in carrying out renovation works are not quantified, nor have the issues related to the transferability of tax credits to third parties been addressed. However, it is possible that some of the issues that were not examined by the Bank of Italy were negative, as they generated uncertainty relating to final beneficiaries of subsidies and their implications on the public budget.
Foti: “The damage caused by piper Conte has been confirmed”
“Bank of Italy’s analysis raises an irrefutable truth about the Superbonus for the first time: one ‘deadweight loss’ of 45 billion equal to 3 points of Gross Domestic Product per year“. This was declared by the group leader of the Brothers of Italy in the Chamber of Deputies, Thomas Foti. The centre-right deputy underlines how the extra tax revenue derived from the bonuses was significantly lower than the gross cost of the same for the state coffers. “The thesis dear to the people’s piper Conte of the zero cost of the Superbonus therefore vanishes into thin air, which instead and conversely leads to a further aggravation of the public debt which will have to be repaid in the future“, continues Foti. “Rather than apologizing to the voters of the 5 Star Movement for their support for the Draghi government, the Grillino leader should apologize for having burned key economic resources which could be invested in pensions, schools or healthcare“, he adds.
To cope”with a sense of responsibility“to the situation and to repair it”one of the many damages caused to the state coffers by the amateur season of government of the 5 Stars“the Meloni government will provide”whose authoritative action is rewarded by the consensus of Italians, as well as being appreciated in Europe and in international forums“.
