It is really difficult to intercept what is and what could be the approach of those who – between today and tomorrow – will go to vote in the European elections. In fact, we go to the polls between 3.00 pm today and 11.00 pm tomorrow, with Giorgia Meloni who has been pushing for days on the appeal to vote, inviting everyone not to forget what she has repeatedly defined in private as a “decisive appointment”, a ” referendum” on the government. The prime minister’s call to arms is a sort of call to arms, to mix up the front and, perhaps, try to intercept the abstention side.
And yes, because today – all polling institutes informally confirm this – the real issue is turnout. Which if it really risks falling below 50% (as is likely), is destined to penalize Fratelli d’Italia above all. In particular, say the experts in numbers and projections in Via della Scrofa, in the North-East (precisely in that area which was Fdi’s main electoral catchment area at the last elections).
The reasoning is in some ways banal, but shared by those who deal with forecasts on this point: with a significant drop in turnout, especially Fdi would lose votes, because its votes do not “warm up” a party that has been in government for almost nineteen months . Furthermore, again according to pollsters, in the end Roberto Vannacci’s candidacy would really contribute to shifting votes to the right, with a slight transfer between Fdi in its institutional version and the League in a more aggressive mood. In short, Matto Salvini’s idea of nominating the controversial Army general despite the opposition of the Northern League’s big names could really have been the Northern League’s trump card. At the moment, again according to forecasts and surveys, it is a hypothesis. But the trend really seems to be in this direction. With the League which would have attracted the electorate further to the right of Fdi and Meloni who would have been forced to play catch-up on that front. If this were the case, it would explain the prime minister’s attacks in recent weeks, more determined to “loyalize” the center-right electorate than to “conquer” those in the middle.
Finally, the second place match of the centre-right coalition between Salvini and Antonio Tajani. The leader of the League is recovering, thanks to the so-called “Vannacci effect”. We will only really know on Monday, after the polls are closed, how much his candidacy really weighed. Certainly, the Carroccio is recovering compared to a few weeks ago when it was even under Forza Italia.
The electoral campaign therefore ends amidst turmoil and skirmishes, even between allies. For a European vote that has effectively given rise to a free-for-all to try to bring grist to their mill. Among the central themes, the risk of abstentionism, with all the leaders, starting from Meloni, who have launched appeals for the vote. And then the peace that the leader of the M5s, Giuseppe Conte, wanted to put in the symbol. In fact, it is precisely on Ukraine that the conflict within the majority between the two deputy prime ministers, Salvini and Tajani, is escalating. The Northern League leader once again attacks the French president, Emmanuel Macron, for the idea of sending European soldiers in the future and the decision to “grant” the Mirage fighters.
“If someone from the centre-right in Italy prefers the left to the centre-right and prefers the warmongering bomber, the dangerous Macron, because Macron is dangerous and I see him as unstable, I don’t want my destiny to be in the hands of an unstable guy”, Salvini goes so far as to say , attacked for this also by the opposition.
We are certainly in the election campaign. And there are a few hours left until the vote and a few days until the new structures of the European summits are defined. Where inclinations and alliances for or against Ukraine will be decisive.
