FQChart is the weekly arithmetic mean of surveys on Italians’ voting intentions exclusively for Il Fatto Quotidiano. All the polls published by the major opinion polling institutes in the week just ended contribute to the average.
Week from 4/29 to 5/5/2024
Five weeks to go European elections of 8-9 June 2024 and three to the blackout of public polls, but there are still no signs of what the big surprise (which there will be) of the final results could be.
Could be Brothers of Italy (today at 27.5% on average) which, thanks to the candidacy of Prime Minister Meloni, could undergo a boost that would take it above 30% (as happened in the League in 2019 it was between 29-30% and ended up well above 34%). Or, on the contrary, emerge diminished at the polls by failing to exceed the value of the 2022 policies, perhaps to the advantage of one or both of the centre-right allies. In fact, it could be a surprise Forza Italiain a positive trend for weeks (now at 8.7% together with Noi Moderati) or perhaps the League (8.3%) for which both scenarios are open: a great driving force for the candidacy Vannacci or ruinous debacle caused by it.
And what about the Democratic Party (20.3%)? Staying above 20% would not be a big surprise but it would guarantee the leadership of the much talked about wide field and above all it would be good for Secretary Schlein. Equally uncertain is the match between Conte and the M5S (16%) who have to deal with an electorate that is certainly moody and traditionally little involved in the European elections. For the Grillini, who do not field big names and high-sounding names, it would be enough to remain above 15% to reaffirm their central role on the political scene. But surprises could come from all the other teams destined to fight to overcome the fateful threshold of 4%: United States of Europe, already declining at 4.6%, Action, the direct competitor of SUE, which is struggling at 3.8% and AVS (3.9%) at risk despite the good number of excellent candidates (Marino, Lucano, Orlando, Salis).
Finally, let’s not neglect the minor players present in the competition (but with less chance of success): Peace, Earth and Dignity of Michele Santoro (2%) and Libertà by Cateno De Luca (1.9%).
Source: Swg, Euromedia Research, Emg, Youtrend, Piepoli, Eumetra, Tecnè
