“Weapons to strike in Russia, but they don’t turn the war around”

Rome, 22 April 2024 – Per day 785 of the war calendar, the United States puts its hand to the arms ATM again, restoring confidence in Ukraine with the 61 billion approved by the House and with the approval of the Senate shortly. “It’s a fundamental step,” says the general Leonardo Tricaricoa palmares with 3 thousand hours of flight, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, military advisor to the Prime Minister’s President, now at the top of Icsa (Intelligence culture and strategic analysis).

General, how long will it take for American aid to arrive?

“It depends on the administrative process, but we won’t have to wait long. The first supplies could arrive in a week. The problem that seems to finally be solved is another one.”

Which?

“The USA has up to now held back in providing long-range weapons systems to avoid an escalation, that is, Kiev attacking Russia at home. But if a country is attacked with massacres of civilians it has the right to react in all ways even outside one’s own territory”.

What weapons will arrive in Kiev?

“I think that this time long-range missiles will be supplied, especially for the F16 fighters which should be sold shortly by the Netherlands and Germany. With an increased air offensive capability of stand-off Taurus systems, Ukraine will acquire an important asset. And with cruise missiles, considered intelligent, can be hit at hundreds of kilometers.”

Are Atacms planned?

“It seems so. It is a tactical surface-to-surface missile system already used in the Desert Storm operation in Iraq in 1991. The missiles are launched from tracked vehicles and can vary their trajectory to avoid being intercepted. They hit up to 300 kilometres. Then we they are the Patriots, essential for air defense against missiles and drones, spare parts and artillery systems”.

THE Will the US aid package make a difference in Kiev’s favour?

“I don’t think so immediately. It can stabilize the situation on the field, not overturn the scenario. The conflict is long and can end in two ways: either with the capitulation of one of the adversaries or with a negotiation. I lean towards the second hypothesis.”

Who is winning today?

“The circumstances are favorable to the Russian army, but there is no talk of victory.”

Negotiation the only way out?

“One opportunity is the Chinese 12-point plan. Two are the main ones. First, the withdrawal of Russia and the recognition of the borders established by the UN with protections for the Russian-speaking populations. Second, no country must strengthen its hegemony at the expense of others. It is a message to NATO not to expand.”

Can European arsenals still support Kiev?

“They were already lacking before. The sacrifices made are discovering our defensive capabilities.”

Ukraine Russian Vietnam?

“It’s possible. Moscow’s army already occupies territory that it cannot control.”