The phase of bad weather which has affected the country since the beginning of May shows no sign of abating and, according to projections for the next few weeks, will continue until the first days of June. Today we will have another rapid worsening. The intense currents at altitude descended Yesterday on North Africa, Today they are moving fast towards Italy. “The trough at high altitude will give its natural contribution to the decrease in atmospheric pressure by adding to the leeward effect generated by the Tunisian mountains. A rather typical scenario for the Ionian area, but also the recipe ideal for the formation of very deep atmospheric pressure lows“: this is what the experts explain National Center for Aerospace Meteorology and Climatology (CNMCA extension) ofair Forcededicating an in-depth look at the storm Minerva.
The fall in atmospheric pressure, “that if it were to equal or exceed 24 hPa in 24 hours it would be configured as one cyclogenesis explosivewill quickly ascend northwards, from the Ionian to the lower Tyrrhenian Sea and then to the mid-Adriatic, practically crossing the entire central-southern” reads the focus published yesterday.
The Meteorological Service of the Air Force, within the European programme Storm Naminghe christened this storm with the name of Minervain coordination with the countries of the Central Mediterranean group.
“Very heavy rains and very intense winds are expected,”the Air Force experts point out. The map above shows the accumulations of rain predicted by the model of the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasts (ECMWF) for the days of Monday and Tuesday, i.e. for the 48 hours in which the storm will directly affect our territory. The highs,”between 130 and 200 mm they can be seen in western Sicily, Emilia-Romagna and on the coasts of the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, between Campania, Basilicata Tyrrhenian and Calabria“.
To support the confidence in the event, there are also the forecasts of the indices specially developed by the ECMWF to evaluate the intensity of some atmospheric parameters. These are the EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) and SOT (Shift of Tail) indices, calculated on the statistical distribution of the climatology of the high resolution model. In the maps that follow, “the solid black lines and the dark red color indicate for Tuesday 16 May the amount of precipitation and wind intensity that exceed the 99th percentile of the statistical distribution, a rather clear signal of intense events with very low frequency of occurrence” (here the details).
To monitor the situation as best as possible weather forecast in real time, below we provide a list of pages with all the useful information to follow the meteorological nowcasting minute by minute:
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