What leaders are at stake
(Renato Benedetto) But the “all against all” is also on for the political meaning of the competition. Because it is a decisive vote, yes, for the future of the Union: the MEPs that we will send to the European Parliament will face key choices, from the environment (the agreements on the Green Deal, on the consumption of houses and cars), to the economy, up to defense (more or less common) and support for Ukraine. But the European Championships in Italy have always had also an entirely domestic meaning: politics weighs in, tests the balance of power, less than two years before the 2022 political elections. Let’s see then what is at stake for parties and their leaders.
Giorgia Meloni he is on the field personally. “If you still believe in me, write Giorgia on the card,” she said. Practically a referendum on itself. Objective: take aat least 26%, the same result that sent her to Palazzo Chigi two years ago. To confirm, therefore, satisfaction. A prime minister candidate for the European elections is unique in Italy (apart from the particular case of Croatia). But there are many party leaders on the lists for the European Parliament (this is also a local peculiarity). And many, if elected, will certainly not go to Strasbourg.
He also runs Elly Schlein. For her the road was more complicated: her candidacy caused some stomach aches in the party and her name is not on her symbol. But the challenge is there: It is the first national election since Schlein has led the Democratic Party. You have not indicated any objectives, but you must stick to them above 19%, the result of the Democratic Party in the elections of two years ago, if it wants to stay safe: below that figure, the party would start to sharpen its knives. In reverse, above 22% it would bring the Dems back to 2019 levels, before the Renzians’ split, with a double result: consolidate his leadership in the party e confirm the role of the Democratic Party, and his, as leader of the opposition.
A role that he doesn’t want to leave exclusive to her, of course, Giuseppe Conte. The M5S leader it’s not on the list: “I don’t deceive the citizens, I already know that I wouldn’t go to Europe.” A blow aimed at the right but also at the left: the Democratic Party, perhaps above all the Democratic Party, is also his target. One of the results to look at is precisely the gap between M5S and the dem: the greater the gap from the Democratic Party, the more complicated it will be for the Movement to claim leadership of a possible broad field. Theshold minimum: 15% of 2022.
In the centre-rightInstead, the game is on for second place, behind Meloni. Lega and Forza Italia play it.
The name of Matteo Salvini is not on the lists, but the Northern League, with the slogan “More Italy, less Europe”, he points to the right and bets on General Roberto Vannacci, a choice that not all the League colonels shared: a bad result could open a discussion on the party’s leadership. Salvini hopes for a double-digit percentage, but, numbers aside, the League must guard against the advance of Forza Italia.
For Antonio Tajaniwhich for the European elections made the agreement with Us Moderates, is the first national electoral test after Berlusconi’s death, although present in the electoral posters. She would like to celebrate her debut with a double-digit result. This would allow the overtaking operation: that is, bypassing the League. To do this, it is betting everything on belonging to the EPP: “The largest party in the EU Parliament”. In short, straight to the center.
But however, the center remains a coveted space and crowded. They also try to occupy it United States of Europe, by Emma Bonino and Matteo RenziAnd Action by Carlo Calenda. Calenda clarified: I’m running to help the team, the other leaders are also on the pitch. Renzi insists: if elected, unlike the others in Europe, I will really go. It’s interesting the derby between the two former members of the Terzo Polo. We will see who will prevail, for them in any case the minimum objective is 4%, the barrier: below, you cannot enter the European Parliament.
The same threshold that, on the left, must overcome Green and left alliance of Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni: it will also be decisive to understand whether or not he will be able to shoot the seat of Ilaria Saliswhose candidacy was much discussed during the election campaign.
Hitting 4% would be an excellent result for the other lists in the running, such as Stefano Bandecchi’s Popular Alternative, Cateno De Luca’s Libertà, Michele Santoro’s Pace Terra Dignità.
Once the parties have been measured, however, we must also look to the balance between the two coalitions, in addition to the internal ones. For the center-right the game is easy: in 2022 taken 43.8%. Confirming this data (beyond the internal proportions) would already be a good signal for the majority of the Meloni government. The oppositionNaturally, he hopes instead for an advance: the internal forces, however, will have a fundamental role in starting discussions on the shape that the field (or fields) that will challenge the center-right can have.
