Let’s see how the African Anticyclone can present itself between June and August

Summer 2024: new seasonal projections for June, July and August have just arrived.

There is now just under a month left until the start of the season (the meteorological season will begin on June 1st) and to get some indications on what it could be like we must rely on the so-called long-term climate projections: an attempt to predict, well in advance, the weather trend in broad terms on vast areal scales. Once decidedly unreliable, seasonal projections have now become a valid scientific prognosis tool; a bit like what happened in the forecast made in recent months for Spring where we anticipated a surplus of rain for April and May.

Well, the previews for the summer smell a specific trend: in fact, according to the latest updates, the next season will be characterized by temperatures widely above the average of around +1°C already at the start of June over much of Europe, including Italy. This trend would seem to continue also between July and August when we enter the key phase of Summer. Analyzing the map below, the thermal anomaly across practically all of southern Europe stands out, with differences between +1.5°C and +2°Cparticularly in the Mediterranean basin, probably due to greater interference by the infamous African anticyclone which could cause heat waves with maximum peaks well above 35°C. Until a few years ago, the milder high pressure of the Azores (of oceanic origin) dictated the law on the Old Continent. Lately, however, we have been witnessing an ever-increasing interference of air masses coming from North Africa, which are responsible for the stronger and more persistent hot waves also about our country.
This, therefore, is a first concern for the beginning of the summer, in line with recent years, during which the problem of climate change is becoming increasingly evident and pressing, even in Italy. Recent studies confirm that among the effects of the changing climate we also find an increase in the frequency of heat waves.

The second aspect, to be kept monitored, especially after the last few months which have been dry to say the least in a good part of the southern regions and in Sicily, concerns the rainfall. Well, the problem linked to it could even worsen water scarcity for the southern regions, with a probable rainfall deficit and the consequent risk of drought. A different matter, however, for the Centre-North where, as has already happened frequently in recent years, with the increase in heat (greater evaporation from the seas = more potential energy at stake) the possibility of extreme weather events such as thunderstorms and hailstorms triggered by sudden influxes of fresh air descending from Northern Europe.

We will therefore see if these first long-term hypotheses will be confirmed and what the effects will be on our country.